LOW GROWTH LAMENT
From puttering to sputtering.
The U.S. economy has slowed more dramatically than most economists expected just a few weeks ago, leaving it more vulnerable to a recession.
Forecasters at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and AllianceBernstein Holding LP in New York have cut their growth estimates for the just-ended third quarter to an annual rate of 2 percent or less. They don’t foresee much, if any, improvement in the fourth quarter: Auto-production cuts and slumping home sales are likely to overwhelm any boost the economy gets from lower gasoline prices, they say.
“We’re decelerating fairly significantly,” says Peter Hooper, a former Federal Reserve official who’s now chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. He sees annual growth below 2 percent in the second half. The economy expanded at a 2.6 percent rate in the second quarter and 5.6 percent in the first.
Growth is getting closer to what Macroeconomic Advisers LLP President Chris Varvares describes as the “stall speed,” where an unexpected shock such as a terrorist strike or a hurricane might be enough to trigger a recession. A mathematical model of the economy developed by Federal Reserve economist Jonathan Wright puts the chances of a recession over the next year at about 40 percent.
With recession risks rising, some Fed officials are becoming uneasy about the outlook. While they remain on guard against the dangers of higher inflation, they say they’re also paying more attention to the threats to growth.
[snip]
Manufacturing in the U.S. last month expanded less than economists forecast as production growth slowed, an industry group reported today. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index dropped to the lowest level since May 2005.
The housing outlook is even grimmer. New-home sales in August were 17 percent year-over-year drop since 2003. Existing home sales were the lowest since early 2004, and prices fell for the first time in 11 years. Article
AFGHANISTAN
Remember, we’re fast coming up on five years since the first shots were fired. (emphasis added)
The problem, current and former U.S., European and Afghan officials and officers agreed, is that the United States failed to follow its own strategy in Afghanistan after the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001.
Instead, they said, the Bush administration, hostile to “nation-building,” relied too heavily on military firepower and concentrated on hunting Osama bin Laden’s followers, not rebuilding one of the most devastated countries on Earth.
The failure to make good on pledges of massive reconstruction has soured many Afghans on President Hamid Karzai and his U.S. supporters. Among the Pashtuns, the country’s dominant ethnic group, sympathy has grown for the Taliban, who are mostly Pashtuns.
So U.S. commanders retooled their approach earlier this year without direction from Washington, putting more emphasis on winning hearts and minds.
“It’s not been an institutional solution. It’s been a bottom-up solution,” said Sturek’s boss, Col. John W. Nicholson, the commander of U.S. forces in southeastern Afghanistan. “I’m encouraged by what I see. There is a real dialogue going on.”
But the challenge facing U.S. commanders is monumental, and it may be too late to prevent Afghanistan from sinking into greater violence and political chaos.
[snip]
In the Taliban-infested district of Dilla, the new civilian sub-governor and his police chief have had to make do with a tent while they await the construction of a new administration compound.
Like pioneers who crossed the western United States in wagon trains, Sturek’s men secured the site by drawing their Humvees up at night in a circle inside a razor-wire perimeter. Article
WHAT HAVE WE BECOME
Oh, so that’s it. Because the briefing didn’t include the specific date, time, place, cast, method and a checklist of steps to follow, there was nothing worth getting hot and bothered about or looking into. Mm-hm.
They’re pathetic. Inept and pathetic. And dissembling, preening poster children for The ‘fraidest Generation.
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and former Attorney General John Ashcroft received the same CIA briefing about an imminent al-Qaida strike on an American target that was given to the White House two months before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
The State Department’s disclosure Monday that the pair was briefed within a week after then-National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice was told about the threat on July 10, 2001, raised new questions about what the Bush administration did in response, and about why so many officials have claimed they never received or don’t remember the warning.
One official who helped to prepare the briefing, which included a PowerPoint presentation, described it as a “10 on a scale of 1 to 10″ that “connected the dots” in earlier intelligence reports to present a stark warning thatal-Qaida, which had already killed Americans in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and East Africa, was poised to strike again.
Former CIA Director George Tenet gave the independent Sept. 11, 2001, commission the same briefing on Jan. 28, 2004, but the commission made no mention of the warning in its 428-page final report. According to three former senior intelligence officials, Tenet testified to commissioner Richard Ben-Veniste and to Philip Zelikow, the panel’s executive director and the principal author of its report, who’s now Rice’s top adviser.
[snip]
Speaking to reporters late Sunday en route to the Middle East, Rice said she had no recollection of what she called “the supposed meeting.”
“What I’m quite certain of, is that it was not a meeting in which I was told that there was an impending attack and I refused to respond,” she said.
Ashcroft, who resigned as attorney general on Nov. 9, 2004, told the Associated Press on Monday that it was “disappointing” that he never received the briefing, either.
But on Monday evening, Rice’s spokesman Sean McCormack issued a statement confirming that she’d received the CIA briefing “on or around July 10″ and had asked that it be given to Ashcroft and Rumsfeld.
[snip]
The briefing “didn’t say within the United States,” said one former senior intelligence official. “It said on the United States, which could mean a ship, an embassy or inside the United States.” Article