Reference

Predicating a near future scenario most dire.

Nigeria, the fifth-largest source of U.S. imported oil, is falling apart and will likely require intervention by the U.S. government and the Navy in particular, according to Michael Vlahos, a national security analyst with Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

As it struggles with separatist unrest, Nigeria is “a place that we’re going to be hearing a lot about in a year,” he said Nov. 16 during a colloquium at the university.

“The situation in Nigeria is literally coming apart,” Vlahos told the audience. “It’s a country that makes Iraq look simple and doable.” As Nigeria falls apart, people in the United States are going to become increasingly aware of its role as a U.S. oil supplier, he said.

“And the place is just unspeakable,” he said. “And how we go in there and what we do there . . . it won’t work unless we have special capabilities.”

Secret assessments prepared for oil companies have concluded the companies will not be able to operate in Nigeria after about two years because they have “screwed things up so bad,” he said.

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At this month’s conference, 11 West African nations, brought together by the U.S. military and the State Department, approved a plan to improve maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea.

Asked about the situation in Nigeria, Rear Adm. Philip Greene, head of strategy and policy for Naval Forces Europe, told ITN the conference did not focus on any specific assessments of the security situation in the Gulf of Guinea. But he said there was “a sense of urgency” from regional actors to “move out on solutions.”

Vlahos predicted the Navy will play a key role supporting new kinds of U.S. engagement around the world in places where U.S. national security interests intersect with alternative communities of impoverished people seeking legitimacy.

Many of these communities exist in vast slums, outside of Western notions of modernity, globalization and nation states, he said. Piety is growing in these regions, he said. But this is a global phenomena that is not merely confined to Muslim areas, he said.

These communities, formed by residents in specific regions, should not be confused with outsider groups such as al Qaeda.

“It’s alternative in the true sense of the word,” said Vlahos. “It isn’t a fictive community like al Qaeda is. Al Qaeda is really more of a fraternity. It may be on its way to being a true community, but that hasn’t happened yet.”

Referring to militias in such areas as non-state actors, as the U.S. government often does, misses the point that these are non-state communities, he said. Vlahos called for greater engagement in these areas. Forging relationships with leaders of such communities is necessary, he said.

“We can’t escape these places,” he said. “These places are now . . . where our national security problems are.”

The people in these places “know how to fight us,” he said. Using military force against such people can turn them into hardened enemies by creating a shared experience of struggle that forges a collective identity and leadership, he said.

Unfortunately, he said, the Bush administration’s policies — including the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the subsequent occupation — have “militarized” the United States’ relationship with people around the world who have been “left behind.” This sets up a dramatic narrative of counter-resistance, in which fighting the United States becomes the means of achieving legitimacy, he said.

Seen from this perspective, he said, Iraq is about the United States “going into a place of alternative communities and unsuccessfully engaging in combat with several of them, just as we did in Mogadishu, just as we’re doing in Afghanistan.”

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He urged the Pentagon to embrace a culture-driven, rather than technology-driven, military ethos. Beyond mere language training, the U.S. military needs many people with cultural empathy who have the capability to develop relationships, as well as fight, he said. That is difficult to achieve, if it is achievable at all, he added. Article