Summary here and here.

Any move by Turkish troops into Kurdish territory would be a declaration of war, the region’s leader said yesterday.

[snip]

“If they invade or if there is any incursion, it means war,” Mr Barzani said at his offices on the outskirts of Arbil. “If they attack our people, our interests, our territories then there will be no limit because everything is subject to that incursion.” Article

[Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdogan said the safe haven that terrorists enjoy in northern Iraq would dominate his talks with US President George W. Bush at the White House on Nov. 5. “I will openly tell him that we expect concrete, immediate steps against the terrorists,” Erdog(an told his deputies. “The problem of the PKK terrorist organization is a test of sincerity for everybody,” he said. “I will tell him [Bush] that this test carries great importance for the region and in determining the fate of our future relations.”

Erdogan said he would seek an explanation from Washington on how US military hardware given to Iraqi forces had ended up in PKK hands. Article

#1:

The Kurdish parliament decided on Tuesday to send a parliamentary delegation to Baghdad to discuss with the federal government the recent Turkish threats to invade northern Iraq after a closed session attended by Kurdistan’s President Massoud Barazani, the parliament’s speaker said.

Speaking at a joint press conference, with Barazani, in the Kurdish parliament after the session, Adnan al-Mufti said “the parliament decided at the end of its closed session to send a parliamentary delegation to meet Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to coordinate with the Iraqi government on Turkish threats on Iraq’s Kurdistan region.” Article

#2:

A gradual economic embargo is being imposed on firms connected to Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani and flights to the northern Iraqi city of Arbil have been stopped, said Ercüment Aksoy, the head of the Foreign Economic Relations Council’s (DEI.K) Turkish-Iraqi Business Committee in an exclusive interview with business daily Referans last week.

The decisions made in the National Security Council (MGK) and the steps taken are positive, according to Aksoy. “The embargo will be against individuals, institutions and sectors who are collaborating with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey does not want to punish the Iraqi people,” he said.

Turkey had a trade volume of $5 billion with Iraq in 2005, and it stands at $1.250 billion for the first six months of this year. A trade volume of $4 to 4.5 billion is aimed for by year end. “It does not matter if our loss amounts to $5 billion or $50 billion. We will do anything for Turkey,” Aksoy said, in response to any possible negative effects of the embargo on trade volume. Article

#3:

In the face of Iraq’s failure to cooperate with Turkey against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants holed up in Iraq, Turkey is getting ready to play the embargo card.

Suggestions for possible economic measures drawn up by Naz?m Ekren, the deputy prime minister in for economy coordination, and Hayati Yaz?c?, the deputy prime minister who oversees Customs, in line with a decision taken at the National Security Council’s (MGK) meeting held on Oct. 24, will be discussed at the Cabinet meeting today.

The first stage of short, medium and long-term plans for sanctions consist mainly of economic measures such as intermittently cutting the electricity supply to northern Iraq and preventing passage of construction materials and foodstuff through the Habur border crossing. Turkey currently supplies 10 percent of northern Iraq’s electricity needs. Turkey may eventually opt to close down Habur, the single and most important border crossing between Turkey and Iraq.

Previously, Turkey had planned to construct another border crossing in Ovaköy as an alternative to Habur, but could not make any progress with that project. Another border crossing, Nusaybin, seems more viable than Habur, as 85 percent of its construction has been completed.

Reports drafted by Ekren and Yaz?c? also identify the extent of economic measures that Turkey may employ against Iraq. Turkey’s action plan also takes into consideration the risk of the Iraqi administration’s shutting down the Kirkuk-Yumurtal?k pipeline. When this pipeline operates at full capacity, Turkey earns $300 million from it annually. However, following the US occupation of Iraq, this pipeline has never operated at full capacity, due to sabotage, and Turkey’s revenue from it has dropped to $100-150 million a year. In the event of a Turkish military incursion into northern Iraq, the pipeline may be shut down and Turkey may lose this source of income. However, given rapid fluctuations in crude oil markets, Turkey does not think that the Iraqi administration will be willing to shut down the pipeline.

[snip]

Aware of the fact that 70 percent of logistical supplies to US troops pass through the Habur border gate, Turkey will act with common sense in its economic measures against Iraq in order to ensure that Turkish-US relations are not affected negatively by its embargo. Recognizing the importance of the Habur border crossing in the reconstruction of Iraq, the government is planning to block passage of construction materials to northern Iraq. No restriction is planned for medical supplies and medicine, as such sanctions would be a violation of international conventions. Initially, exports of foodstuffs and agricultural products may be restricted.

[snip]

The opening of the Nusaybin border crossing may prove to be another thorn in Turkish-US relations as it bypasses the Kurdish region in northern Iraq to access the Arab region of Iraq. Because of its problematic relations with Syria, the US administration may oppose the opening of this border crossing on the grounds of security problems in the Arab region of Iraq.

[snip]

Transportation Minister Binali Yildirim announced on Tuesday that Turkey may suspend flights to Iraq and prohibit Iraqi planes from using Turkish airspace in line with the imposition of economic sanctions on northern Iraq. Article

#4 — related, from the horse’s mouth, so to speak.

Turkish drivers carrying goods and equipment to Iraq say that the closure of the Habur Border Gate with northern Iraq will result in a boycott by them because the alternative route of using the Rabia border gate via Syria is unsafe.

One driver waiting in Zaho in northern Iraq to cross into Turkey via Habur, Bedirhan Konuk, said it was highly unlikely for Turkish drivers to travel to Iraq via Syria using the Rabia border gate. He said, ?there are headhunters once you pass that gate. They [headhunters] kill drivers and torch their trucks. No one can guarantee drivers’ safety there.”

He said they will be the main victims if the Turkish National Security Council (MGK), the country’s top advisory body, decides to close the Habur gate as part of its effort to pressure the northern Iraq government.

He said before the MGK’s decision last week, 1,000 vehicles passed the Habur gate every day on average, noting that it had already dropped to 400 since then. Article

#5 — op-ed du jour:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will arrive in Ankara next Thursday, one day ahead of her trip to Istanbul to attend the Istanbul summit on Iraq. I don’t know what this hastily arranged visit to the capital might signal. Is she coming to Turkey to try to convince Turkey not to carry out an operation into Iraq, or to tell us that at least some of the conditions Turkey has insisted on to head off an attack have been fulfilled? There is a common belief and pessimism in Ankara that Rice will come to Turkey to head off an attack. The lack of trust between Washington and Ankara has recently become very clear. I could see this when US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza, attending the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) meeting yesterday as an observer, said that the US was trying to rescue the eight Turkish soldiers who were taken prisoner last Sunday. Reporters there heard a top Turkish official loudly dismiss this as “empty words” which were irritating Turkey.

[snip]

…developments indicate rising pressure on the government, which wants to minimize public tension, to take action. In addition, what the Iraqi delegation which arrived in Ankara yesterday has to say is another matter of curiosity, because Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani are still resisting cracking down on the PKK. There are many reasons for this, including their fear that the terrorist group will target them as well. The Kurdish administration might not be able to take a lot of harm, from pipeline sabotage to God knows what. What’s more, the Kurds rely on the US occupation of Iraq, and thus feel they’re on the verge of an independent Kurdish state and are playing for high stakes. So maybe next week the government can tell Rice something similar to what Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal recently said: ‘Instead of Turkey stopping the PKK, why don’t you?” Article