Don’t know what prompted the thought, but via quick and rough calculation, come this summer the U.S. will have been engaged in boots on the ground warfare for longer than it officially was in World Wars I and II, combined.

WWI: Declaration of war - early April 1917. Armistice Day - mid-November 1918. Approximately 19 months.

WWII: Declaration of war - early December 1941. VJ Day - mid-August 1945. Approximately 45 months.

Total: approximately 64 months.

Iraq: late March 2003 to today - coming up now on 61 months.

The operations in Afghanistan, of course, have long surpassed that length, currently being in month 78.

It is, frankly, distressing in extremis to realize that every single child here aged 6½ or younger has never lived in an America not actively waging war.

Afghanistan summary here.

Pakistan summaries here and here and here.

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73½ months on…

The conflict in Afghanistan has reached “crisis proportions”, with the resurgent Taliban present in more than half the country and closing in on Kabul, a report said on Wednesday.

[snip]…The insurgency now controls vast swaths of unchallenged territory including rural areas, some district centres, and important road arteries.” Article

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Noted FYI:

Switzerland announced on Wednesday that it would end its four years’ cooperation with the NATO-led international forces in Afghanistan by recalling its military personnel.

Two Swiss army officers, currently working with a German team in the northeastern Kunduz province, will return home by March next year, Swiss Defense Minister Samuel Schmid told a press conference in Bern, the Swissinfo website reported.

Schmid said he took the decision for security reasons. The NATO-led mission in Afghanistan has become a peace enforcement operation rather than a peacekeeping duty, he said.

According to Schmid, a continued Swiss military presence in Afghanistan - although “rather symbolic” - is impossible because it goes against the spirit of the constitution and is not in line with the law.

[snip]

According to the Swiss Defense Ministry, the nature of NATO’s engagement in Afghanistan has changed since 2005. But its mission has progressively turned into a campaign against insurgents.

Even in the regions where warlords and fighters only carry out sporadic activity, the mission has faced difficulties because of the need for troops to resort to self-protection measures.

In areas of the country where the Taliban have regained strength, reconstruction work has become practically impossible, the Swiss authorities said. Article

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Turning the aphorism on its head, the chaotic whole is less than the sum of its parts.

National unity has always been a difficult concept in Afghanistan, a country with a bewildering array of ethnic and tribal groups, and language often serves as the lightening rod for controversy. The issue recently resurfaced with a government plan to dramatically increase the number of Pashto-language schools in Kabul, the predominantly Dari-speaking capital.

While some politicians applauded the education ministry’s initiative, it has prompted a strong backlash from others.

During a roundtable discussion on Tolo TV, Kabul member of parliament Najibullah Kabuli went as far as calling the initiative a “crime”, and accused Education Minister Hanif Atmar of seeking to sow disunity among schoolchildren.

[snip]

Dari and Pashto are by far the most widespread languages in Afghanistan, and very roughly speaking prevail in the north and south, respectively. Kabul parliamentary Fawzia Nasiryar pointed out that many other languages are spoken throughout Afghanistan, for instance Uzbek and Turkmen. If Kabul’s Pashtuns have access to education in their language, other linguistic minorities should be granted the same right, she argued.

“This action by the education minister is a tribal action,” she claimed. “If it isn’t tribal, why hasn’t he built schools for other languages? The minister is taking such action only for the sake of his tribe.”

Ministry spokesman Afghan defended the cabinet’s decision to create separate schools for Pashtuns, who are by far the largest group in Kabul using a language other than Dari in daily life.

There are about 200,000 Pashtun students in the city, according to ministry statistics. Of those, only 20,000 actually study in Pashto. Just five out of Kabul’s 175 schools are Pashto-only, while nine more provide classes in both Pashto and Dari. Article

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Pakistan aboil.

#1:

Pakistan’s ousted chief justice remains under arrest, a day after officials said judges detained under emergency rule could move around freely.

Iftikhar Chaudhry tried to leave his Islamabad residence but was stopped from doing so by security forces.

Meanwhile, President Musharraf has amended the constitution to prevent future legal challenges to his actions.

[snip]

Mr Chaudhry tried to leave his residence on Wednesday but was stopped from going to the Supreme Court by large numbers of security forces ringing his residence.

Another judge, former presidential candidate Wajihuddin Ahmed, tried to visit Mr Chaudhry and was briefly detained along with a lawyer. Article

A bit more:

The capital police Wednesday arrested lawyers and members of civil society including the former presidential candidate, Justice (Retd.) Wajihuddin Ahmed and Advocate Athar Min-Allah here from Judges Colony and took them to an unknown location.

The administration intercepted the above persons by erecting barricades and deploying heavy security forces on the way leading to the Chief Justice House and later arrested them in front of an area hotel. Article

#2 — and it is damned past time for a voice in authority to squarely and robustly lay this on the table.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights [said] on Tuesday the restoration of the independence of Pakistan’s judiciary is as important as the holding of elections.

[snip]

The UN rights chief said Pakistan had turned down her request for a visit but she would be in transit in Islamabad Wednesday.

She said it was worrying that “nobody seems to be calling for a reversal on this attack on the judiciary,” adding it remained to be seen if the democratic process could “regain its momentum” after the recent events.

“I think a lot of judges have refused to pledge to take an oath of allegiance to the new regime, but because of the state of emergency we haven’t seen the level of protest that otherwise could have manifested itself,” she said. Article

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Analysis du jour:

In 1999, after mounting a coup, General Pervez Musharraf spoke to the nation late at night. One of the reasons he attributed for the necessity of the coup was Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif disturbing the integrity of the Pakistan army by summarily replacing Musharraf with another general. That telling observation indicated the army’s perception of its role in Pakistan.

The integrity of the army was more important than the integrity of the country, and for that an elected government had to be removed. This perception has guided the Pakistan army through the country’s independent history. The past and future of Musharraf is better understood through the conviction of the Pakistan army’s image of itself.

The question being asked now is if, when and in what manner Musharraf would leave office. But the real question is: How would the Pakistan army respond to the possibility of Musharraf either continuing in or leaving the political scene?… Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here and here.

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Pakistan aboil.

#1:

Three defiant judges of the Supreme Court, who are presently under house arrest after imposition of emergency, have now declared in their detailed judgment submitted before the SC last Friday that General Musharraf could not be allowed to contest the presidential elections.

[snip]

These judges who had refused to take oath under the PCO, have also observed in their joint judgment, which has not been released to the media, that continuation of Musharraf as the army chief beyond December 31, 2004 was “illegal and unlawful”.

The judges, Justice Rana Bhagwandas, Justice Sardar Mohammad Raza Khan and Mian Shakirullah Jan, were part of the nine-member bench which had dismissed the petitions of Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Imran Khan on September 28, 2007 with regard to the question whether Musharraf could contest election from the present assemblies with or without uniform. Article

#2:

Thousands of people fled from a valley in northwest Pakistan as security forces stepped up an offensive against pro-Taliban militants, while fighting killed 19 people. Advancing ground troops killed 15 militants in the Shangla district in the scenic Swat valley, the site of fierce clashes with insurgents led by hardline Islamist cleric Maulana Fazlullah in recent weeks in which more than 300 people have died. Article

#3:

Police in Pakistan’s southern port city of Karachi on Tuesday baton-charged journalists protesting curbs on the media imposed by President Pervez Musharraf and arrested more 150 people, news reports said.

Several demonstrators were injured in the clashes, which occurred outside the city’s press club, Geo News reported on its website, the television channel’s only service still operating after it was shut down by the government at midnight Friday. Article

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It’s not called critical mass for nothing.

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are already under American control even as analysts are working themselves into a lather on the subject, a well-regarded intelligence journal has said.

In a stunning disclosure certain to stir up things in Washington’s (and in Islamabad and New Delhi’s) strategic community, the journal Stratfor reported on Monday that the “United States delivered a very clear ultimatum to Musharraf in the wake of 9/11: Unless Pakistan allowed US forces to take control of Pakistani nuclear facilities, the United States would be left with no choice but to destroy those facilities, possibly with India’s help.”

“This was a fait accompli that Musharraf, for credibility reasons, had every reason to cover up and pretend never happened, and Washington was fully willing to keep things quiet,” the journal, which is widely read among the intelligence community, said.

The Stratfor commentary came in response to an earlier New York Times story that reported that the Bush administration had spent around $100 million to help Pakistan safeguard its nuclear weapons, but left it unclear if Washington has a handle on the arsenal. Article

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Contours of ceremonial chaos.

Hamid Karzai flew to Kandahar last month for a ceremony that later emerged as a key moment in the war against the Taliban, although many people here are still arguing about whether the Afghan president averted disaster or opened a new tribal conflict with his visit to the south.

Mr. Karzai arrived shortly after the legendary warrior Mullah Naqib died of a heart attack on Oct. 11. As hundreds of mourners gathered in the front garden of Mr. Naqib’s home on the north side of Kandahar city, the president stood and placed a silver turban on the boyish head of Kalimullah Naqibi, the tribal elder’s 26-year-old son.

[snip]

Some politicians in the city approved of the President’s action, viewing it as a swift intervention to give the tribe a leader with firm loyalty to the central government. Mr. Naqibi and his supporters say the move was purely decorous, a symbol of the President’s approval for a decision already taken by top elders in the tribe.

But senior members of the Alokozai’s leadership are publicly expressing their discontent, blaming Mr. Karzai for interfering in their affairs and violating their traditions. Installing an untested young man as their tribal leader has hurt security, they say, pointing to the fact that, within weeks of the decision, Canadian and Afghan troops were required to push back the first major Taliban attack on Alokozai lands north of the city.

General Khan Mohammed, an Alokozai tribesman who serves as an adviser to the Interior Minister, said he recently visited Mr. Karzai at his palace with another senior elder to complain about the selection of the young leader.

“I said, ‘Why did you put the turban on Kalimullah’s head?’” Gen. Mohammed said in an interview at his home in the capital. “The tribe didn’t choose this leader. I told him, you’re increasing the violence in our lands.”

[snip]

Variations of the same question are asked in private by senior politicians in Kandahar, who say the disgruntled contenders for the Alokozai leadership are trying to revoke the blessings they have already bestowed on Mr. Naqibi.

But the rules of Pashtun tribal etiquette forbade anybody from raising a fuss in the wake of Mr. Naqib’s death, Gen. Mohammed said, so the elders in attendance that night didn’t feel comfortable raising their voices against the President. Article

Afghanistan summary here.

Pakistan summaries here and here and .

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Internal chaos abides.

The Pakistani military said Wednesday it had killed at least 33 militants, while two soldiers died in rocket attacks, as heavily-armed supporters of a pro-Taliban cleric gained control over a third town in the north-western valley of Swat. Article

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Internal political chaos abides.

Pakistani authorities have charged former cricket star and opposition politician Imran Khan under the country’s anti-terror act, which includes penalties such as life imprisonment.

Khan was arrested Wednesday, shortly after arriving for a rally at Punjab University in the eastern city of Lahore. It was his first public appearance since the imposition of emergency rule.

In a separate development, Pakistani opposition politicians are considering plans to form a united front against the state of emergency and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Article

More. (And also a comment from ye old scribe noting the abject silence from the U.S., the EU, etc., etc. regarding restoration of the judiciary.)/p>

The counsel of General Pervez Musharraf on Wednesday submitted in the Supreme Court a written reply to the petition of Tikka Iqbal against November 3 Proclamation of Emergency, praying that the petition be dismissed and the Proclamation be validated. Raja Ibrahim Satti advocate filed the reply through advocate-on- record Ejaz Muhammad Khan a day before the 10-member full court is due to resume hearing of the two constitutional petitions on Thursday.

The other petition has been moved by Watan Party through its counsel Barrister Zafarullah Khan.

In the reply, the counsel stated that the petition was not maintainable as the Article 3 of the Provisional Constitution Order (PCO) clearly lays down that “No court including the Supreme Court, the Federal Shariat Court, the High Courts and any Tribunal or other authority shall call in question the PCO, the Oath of Office (Judges) Order 2007 or any order made in pursuance thereof.”

The PCO also lays down that “No judgment, decree, writ, order or process whatsoever shall be made or issued by any Court or tribunal against the President or the Prime Minister or any other authority designated by the President.” Article

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Short of an armada of airlifts, the alternate options for permissible overland transport are highly limited, particularly with winter setting in.

The U.S. military is looking at alternate routes to send supplies to troops in Afghanistan in case the political crisis in Pakistan makes current supply lines unavailable, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

The U.S. military sends 75 percent of its supplies for the Afghanistan war through or over Pakistan, including 40 percent of the fuel sent to troops, the Defense Department said.

[snip]

…Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said the military had to make contingency plans due to importance of those supply lines.

“There are efforts underway right now to figure out contingency supply lines to our troops in Afghanistan if it becomes necessary to alter the way we now support our troops in Afghanistan,” Morrell said.

“In light of the fact that there is civil unrest in Pakistan, in light of the fact that there is a state of emergency in Pakistan, we feel it is responsible, given the importance of the Pakistani supply lines to our operations in Afghanistan, to have a contingency plan.”

Morrell said the United States does not send ammunition through Pakistan.

“No matter what is happening on the ground in Pakistan, it will not impact us being able to provide ammunition to troops in Afghanistan,” he said. Article

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Rules and procedures exist not only to provide instruction and guidance, but also accountability.

Canadian diplomats and corrections officers in Kandahar have come across what they consider to be a clear and “credible” case of torture involving a Canadian-captured Taliban fighter.

The revelation came as the federal government was forced to release over 1,000 pages of court documents that outline in graphic detail some of the abuse claims made by Afghan prisoners.

Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier told the House of Commons about the latest case, which brings to seven the number of complaints Canadian authorities have received since Ottawa signed a revised prisoner transfer agreement with the government of Afghan president Hamid Karzai.

Senior government officials, speaking on background late in the evening, said the incident was discovered during the latest inspection by Canadian authorities of a jail – likely belonging to Afghanistan’s notorious intelligence service.

“Our trained observers came across particularly credible evidence of mistreatment,” said a senior official, who indicated the injuries were physical.

“We have since heard from the Afghans that their investigation has already been launched and they come to an initial indication of wrongdoing and that they’re considering measures that include both firing personnel and prosecution.”

Published reports last spring said as many as 30 prisoners – captured by Canadian troops, but handed over to local authorities – complained of being beaten and abused prior to the signing of a new transfer arrangement last May. Six more cases surfaced in the wake of the new deal.

[snip]

Both the Canadian and Afghan governments promised investigations into the allegations last spring.

Senior officials said, with the exception of the latest case, the investigations are either incomplete – or inconclusive because record-keeping in Afghan jails is spotty.

Human rights officials have raised concern that Canadians maybe held liable under international law if they’ve been deemed to have handed someone over to be tortured.

A senior federal official, with responsibility for United Nations matters, said the issue falls into a legal gray area and that Canadians might not be accountable as long as it’s demonstrated they took every precaution to ensure torture didn’t take place.

But a University of Ottawa law professor, who first raised concern about prisoner treatment, dismissed the defence.

“We have not met our obligation under international law to avoid aiding and abetting torture,” said Amir Attaran. “If you deliver the body to them in good faith and they go away and torture, you’re safe? There’s no disputing we now know torture is taking place.”

[snip]

The court records show that Canadian officials are not sure what happened to a number of the prisoners it transfered to the Afghans prior to the signing of the new arrangement. They were also put in the embarassing position of writing to the United States, which took custody of Canadian-captured insurgents between 2002-2005, to determine what happened to some of them. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here and here.

Also here and here.

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Intrnal chaos abides.

Pakistani helicopter gunships killed four militants and destroyed bunkers and ammunition dumps at a village in a northwestern region where a pro-Taleban rebel has led an insurrection, the military said yesterday.

More than 200 people have been killed in clashes between fighters commanded by Maulana Fazlullah and security forces over the past few weeks in Swat, a picturesque, mountainous district of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) that was formerly a tourist haven. Article

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Internal electoral chaos abides.

Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto demanded the resignation of U.S.-backed President Gen. Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday, dashing Western hopes that the two moderate leaders would form an alliance to confront strengthening Islamic extremists.

Bhutto, just placed under house arrest for the second time since her return from exile, said she was working to forge a partnership with Nawaz Sharif, the man overthrown as prime minister in a 1999 coup by Musharraf.

[snip]

Authorities imposed the detention to block her from staging a protest procession to the capital, Islamabad. The march went ahead but was quickly stopped by police, and security forces also clashed with anti-government protesters in other cities.

Tuesday’s events were in many ways a replay of Friday, when police sealed Bhutto inside her Islamabad villa for a single day and rounded up hundreds, possibly thousands, of her supporters to stop a mass rally she had called outside the capital.

Bhutto said thousands of her supporters were again rounded up Tuesday, although officials denied detentions on such a large scale. This time, Bhutto’s reaction was much sharper – calling the crackdown the “breaking point” in her relations with Musharraf.

“I’m calling for Gen. Musharraf to step down, to quit, to leave, to end martial law,” she said in a phone call with a group of journalists. “Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country. We cannot afford this kind of chaos and instability,” Bhutto said.

“I could not serve as prime minister with Gen. Musharraf as president. I wish I could,” she added.

[snip]

In the southern city of Karachi, Bhutto supporters angered by her detention fired on two police stations, and police used tear gas to disperse them. A 9-year-old boy and a woman were wounded in the crossfire of a gunbattle between demonstrators and police, witnesses said.

In unusually strong criticism of a key ally, U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson on Tuesday described emergency rule as an “ominous development.” Article

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External confusion/chaos/wishful thinking abides.

“Washington’s approach to Pakistan has always been that the devil we know is better than the devil we don’t know. But there is every reason to believe that with Musharraf and Pakistan, that is not the case,” says Selig Harrison, director of the Asia Program at the Center for International Policy in Washington. “Musharraf has blinded Washington over and over again with a mastery of blackmail, but in the two areas we worry most about – nuclear proliferation and Islamist extremism – there are alternatives that are just as good, if not better.”

Captivated by Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power, linchpin in the US-led war on terror, and the presumed home of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, the US has treated the military leader as if he were the last stand before nuclear Armageddon or a new triumph for Islamist extremism, many experts say. Musharraf came to power in a coup in 1999.

A Pakistan with Gen. Ashfak Kayani as military chief, for example, and a civilian government elected by the Pakistani people, would be at least as effective in opposing the extremists’ rise and perhaps better at safeguarding Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Many observers believe General Kayani is Musharraf’s likely successor as head of the armed forces.

[snip]

Another factor standing in the way of US backing for a real political transition in Pakistan could be private deals the US may have made with Musharraf over US actions vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Iran.

“This is just speculation,” Harrison says, “but it’s not hard to imagine some kind of agreements that might have been made with Musharraf about intelligence or special operations” in Iran or concerning the Islamist communities in Pakistan’s northern frontier areas “that are influencing our actions in this crisis.” Article

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Constant punctuations of civilian slaughter.

The Polish Defense Ministry says seven soldiers serving with the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan have been detained for the killing of civilians in the eastern part of the country.

In a statement released Tuesday, Polish military prosecutors say the soldiers were detained for violating international law, specifically the Hague and Geneva Conventions. Article

Summary here.

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The latest French connection.

With U.S. F-15 fighters ordered to stand by in Afghanistan, French fighters are providing close-air support for U.S. troops and their allies there, the Military Times reported Wednesday.

Since a Nov. 2 crash of a F-15C Eagle in Missouri, the U.S. AirForce has restricted flights of F-15Es and F-15Cs to “mission-critical” sorties only.

In Afghanistan, where F-15Es take off from Bagram Air Base, the restriction means that F-15Es sit on combat alert status but are not assigned to pre-planned or on-call missions.

In the absence of F-15s, French Mirage 2000 and F-1 CR fighters were summoned for two air strikes and more shows of force above enemy positions in Afghanistan. Article

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April 2010 would be well into Year Eight.

Britain has begun preparing to extend its military deployment in Afghanistan until 2010, the defence secretary said on Wednesday.

Defence Secretary Des Browne announced a temporary brigade headquarters was being set up to command British forces in Afghanistan from October 2009 - when the current British commitment ends - to April 2010. Article

Afghanistan summaries here and here and here.

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Chaos abides.

The body count has fluctuated widely since the attack occurred early this morning and local officials say it may take days to pick through the burnt bodies and rubble before an accurate number is acquired.

Sayed Mustafa Kazemi, who served as the Commerce Minister before becoming the lead spokesman for the opposition group, the United National Front (Jabhe-ye-Motahed-e-Milli), has been confirmed killed in the attack. Other members of Parliament killed include Abdul Mateen, a former communist engineer from the southern province of Helmand; Qudrutallah Zaki from the northern province of Takhar; Said Rahman Hehmat from Kunar Province and Muhammed Arif Zarif from Kabul.

The attack also left an unknown number of school children dead who were preparing to sing as the VIP’s entered the sugar factory. Several tribal elders greeting the VIP’s were also reported to be amongst the dead.

The attack has been condemned by a sporadic Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid. “We, the movement of the Taliban, condemn the action and whoever carried it out,” he said. “It took the lives of ordinary people mostly.”

The Taliban have routinely denied carrying out attacks that kill civilians or children because of the bad publicity it garners. However, a factional hand may also be in play as this area of northern Baghlan is known to be a stronghold of UNF strongman, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, who has enemies abound.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-i-Islami faction is also known to hold pockets of various northern provinces including Baghlan and has a serious rift with Dostum and the UNF. Cut out from the UNF’s creation, Hekmatyar has exerted revenge against former commanders and some of those Hezb commanders who joined the UNF; such as Ustad Farid, who was assassinated earlier this year. Article

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Defining the pie?

…an event co-hosted by The Embassy of Afghanistan and the Afghan-American Chamber of Commerce where the U.S. Geological Survey will unveil a 2007 preliminary assessment of non-fuel mineral resources of Afghanistan.

The assessment will provide policymakers and potential private investors with valuable new information on the identity, location and quantity of undiscovered non-fuel mineral resources, such as copper, iron ore, colored stones and gemstones.

The USGS was commissioned by the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to develop a preliminary assessment of Afghanistan’s non-fuel mineral resources. USGS scientists worked cooperatively with the Afghanistan Geological Survey of the Afghanistan Ministry of Mines, between 2004 and 2007, to compile existing information about known mineral deposits and evaluate the possible occurrence of undiscovered deposits of non-fuel mineral resources. Article

Summary here.

A suicide bomber killed 90 people and wounded 50 on Tuesday in an attack on a delegation of visiting parliamentarians in the northern Afghan town of Baghlan, the director of the local hospital said.

[snip]

Five parliamentarians, including opposition spokesman Mostafa Kazemi, were among those killed, the provincial governor said. Baghlan’s intelligence chief, Abdurrahman Sayedkhail, said the number of casualties was so high it was impossible to give an accurate number for now. Article

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Noted FYI:

Early next year the Korean government plans to send up to 30 civilian medical workers to Afghanistan to offer free services there.

[snip]

Meanwhile Seoul’s defense ministry says it will complete the pullout of some 200 Korean non-combat troops in Afghanistan before the presidential election in mid-December. Article

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Also FYI (it is a puffed up press release, so keep that in mind when reading the whole thing).

Afghan Wireless proudly announces the completion of its high capacity digital Microwave Ring around the country.

This is the first Microwave Ring across the country in the history of Afghanistan, covering a distance of 2,500 Kilometers and millions of dollars of investment. It passes through 18 provinces providing direct coverage and connectivity to the population residing in surrounding areas.…

Afghan Wireless Microwave Ring is Afghanistan’s largest network providing Voice and Data interconnect through high speed terrestrial links. The Afghan Wireless Microwave Ring connects the North of the Country in Mazar, Takhar, Badakshan and Kunduz to Kabul over the Salang, which is further connected in the South to Kandahar and Spinboldak. The ring further extends West from Kandahar, passing through Hilmand, Nimroz and Farah, to reach Herat. It also extends from Herat to Mazar via Badghees, Faryab and Jawjan provinces. In the East, the ring connects Kabul to Jalalabad and the Turkham Border, along with the Kunar Valley. It also connects Gardez and Khost in the South East of the country. Article

Summaries here and here and here.

Summaries here and here and here.

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The kind of rift which cannot be healed?

Afghanistan’s conservative parliament was in uproar on Saturday over a translation of the Koran by a government official they accused of trying to create division among Muslims.

Parliamentarians accused the official of misinterpreting the Muslim holy book on many issues including homosexuality and adultery in his translation into Dari, the second most used language in Afghanistan.

After an angry debate in both houses of parliament, MPs and senators agreed Mohammad Ghaws Zalmai, spokesman to the attorney-general, should not be allowed to travel outside the country until the matter had been investigated.

[snip]

The parliament, the first to be democratically elected in Afghanistan, last year called for the execution of an Afghan who converted to Christianity on the basis that Sharia law provided for this penalty.

MPs also ordered that the man, Abdul Rahman, remain in the country. He was secretly whisked out for asylum in Italy. Article

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Putting the screws on Japan (which imports all its fuel) to all but immolate the most recent government.

Australia and the US have asked the Japanese Government to quickly resume its refuelling of the allied naval cordon in the Indian Ocean off Afghanistan.

The six-year-old mission, in which Japan supplies fuel to the other navies trying to interdict shipments of arms and foreign insurgents to the Taliban forces, was suspended on Thursday after enabling legislation expired.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who is expected in Tokyo next week to reinforce his message, said he hoped Japanese naval refuelling for the US-organised Operation Enduring Freedom could resume within weeks.

“My hope is that relatively soon, in a matter of weeks or — I hope not — more than a few months this assistance will be able to be renewed,” Mr Gates said in Washington.

The last possibility of that happening was to be decided by a meeting yesterday afternoon in which Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda tried to persuade opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa to lift his blockade of enabling legislation in the upper house.

The meeting was continuing last night. Mr Ozawa argues that OEF is not a UN-mandated mission and that, therefore, Japan’s participation is in violation of its pacifist constitution.

Mr Ozawa, whose Democratic Party of Japan commands the numbers in the House of Councillors since an election in July, is also trying to force the Fukuda Government to dissolve the House of Representatives for an early general election.

As a compromise, the Government has proposed scaling down the naval operation mission so that none of its fuel would be used for combat in Afghanistan, only for ships carrying out anti-terrorism patrols.

Before yesterday’s meeting Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said he hoped the deadlock could be broken, hinting that the Government might indeed be forced to call an election almost two years before it is due.

[snip]

If last night’s talks failed, the Government was expected to put a bill extending the Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Act to the Diet next week.

If the bill was blocked in the upper house, Mr Fukuda could use the Government’s two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives to force through the legislation.

However, the Government is reluctant to use this measure for the first time in 50 years and, even if it was employed, the chances of getting Maritime Self-Defence Force vessels back to the interdiction zone before the end of this month would be small.

The US, Australia and other members of the coalition of the willing have put Japan under unusually open pressure on an issue that would generally be regarded as domestic and difficult to address with public diplomacy. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here and here.

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Pot. Kettle. Black.

Afghanistan said Friday it had summoned Iran’s representative here to complain about reports of Afghan minors being sentenced to death for drug smuggling and the forced expulsion of refugees.

Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Kabir Farahi also raised concerns at the meeting on Thursday about claims that Afghan nationals were beaten up in Tehran, the foreign ministry said in a statement.

It is not unusual in Iran for drug smugglers of Afghan origin to be executed in border provinces. Article

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Chaos in veritas.

Pakistani villagers said a missile strike hit houses near a madrasa founded by an old friend of Osama bin Laden’s on Friday, killing at least five people.

They told Reuters a drone aircraft carried out the attack. The United States has carried out such operations in the past using drones, which Pakistan does not possess in its armory. The Pentagon issued a swift denial the US military had conducted a strike, though spokesman Bryan Whitman said he could not speak for US intelligence agencies that also operate the pilotless aircraft.

A Pakistani military spokesman said he had heard there had been an explosion in a house but there had been no action by Pakistani forces. The sprawling religious school or madrasa near Miranshah, the main town in the Waziristan tribal region, was founded by veteran mujahideen commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, whose ties to bin Laden go back to the 1980s jihad against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

“A drone was flying very low and fired the missile. It destroyed three houses,” a Dandi Darpakheil village resident told Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivities over US operations in Pakistani territory.

Several other villagers corroborated his account.… Article

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Following up on the execrable, retrogressive proposals mentioned here yeaterday:

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has strongly denounced the proposed move to amend the Army Act to provide for additional grounds for court martial of civilian offenders or suspects.

Any suggestion for an increase in the intelligence agencies’ powers is like a slap in the nation’s face, HRCP chairperson Asma Jahangir said in a statement.

The HRCP said that the havoc the intelligence agencies have wrought has given rise to a unanimous public demand for an end to their illegal activities and a drastic curtailment of whatever legal functions they have been assigned.

The legalisation of the intelligence agencies’ practice of picking up and detaining citizens will gravely undermine the rule of the law, the commission said, adding that it will increase and justify the cases of disappearance of which the Supreme Court has been seized of nearly a year.

Terming the reported move to amend the Army Act to provide for additional grounds for court martial of civilian offenders or suspects, as even more sinister, it said, this will amount to creation of summary military courts against which the Supreme Court had issued a firm bar some years ago.

The statement said the court martial proceedings against civilians can only be termed state terrorism by abuse of law, the Dawn reported. Article

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Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

Pakistan’s Supreme Court today said it is likely to give its verdict on petitions challenging President Pervez Musharraf’s re-election in uniform by November 6 even as an application was filed asking the apex court to direct the military ruler not to take any unconstitutional step.

Attorney General Malik Qayyum, who is appearing on behalf of Musharraf, assured the court that there was no move to impose martial law in the country.

Though the 11-member bench had yesterday indicated that it was unlikely to decide the matter before November 14 as one of the judges would be away to attend his daughter’s marriage, it said today that it would sit even on Saturday and Sunday, if necessary, so that it could give a ruling quickly in view of the importance of the case. Article

Afghanistan summaries here and here and here. Also this.

Pakistan summary here and here.

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So how’s that thrice handed-off training going?

In a mud-walled village on the outskirts of the provincial capital of Qalat, police checkpoint commander Abdul Rasool complains he is tired of his country’s six-year war and longs for peace.

Despite Rasool’s appeal, he represents what the U.S. military thinks is wrong with Afghanistan’s police, a force wracked by corruption that was long neglected as the army took front and centre in securing the nation’s borders and fighting the insurgency.

Standing nearby, U.S. army Capt. Dave Perry points out that trucks are being “destroyed” close to the checkpoint the Afghan commander supervises. Perry mentors the Afghan police and is the project officer for a checkpoint consolidation plan which aims to clean up police crime in southern Afghanistan’s Zabul province.

Rasool, a slight, sun-weathered man appearing older than his 27 years, seems oblivious to the veiled accusation. “Maybe the situation is getting bad because we have a lot of checkpoints now, so more Taliban come,” he responded.

[snip]

“What we can’t have here is 8,000 ticked off policemen who are going to be joining the insurgency,” Maj. Gen. Robert Cone, commanding general of the U.S. Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan, told IPS in a Kabul interview. The command is responsible for training and equipping the Afghan security forces.

[snip]

Until the United States took control of police training a few months ago, Afghan officers were taught to deal only with traditional police issues like domestic violence or bank robberies. Now the strategy is to give the police “survival skills,” said Kornish.

While some may describe the new training as military in nature, American forces refer to it as reality training. “Until the security situation in this country improves radically, police here are not going to be the police on the block back home — because if they try to do that they’re going to die,” he warned. Article

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Noted FYI:

Portugal will cut its military presence in Afghanistan by more than 90 percent from August 2008, Defense Minister Nuno Severiano Teixeria told parliament, according to Lusa news agency.

Portugal will reduce its contribution to NATO’s International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) from 162 soldiers to a single C-130 transport plane and 15 soldiers to train members of the Afghan army, the defence minister said during a parliamentary commission meeting. Article

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Blurring the distinctions between providing info and material to news organizations and creating and managing news in toto.

When NATO put out a call for more equipment in southern Afghanistan, it was expecting guns and helicopters - not cameras and video-cataloguing gear.

But that’s what it got from Denmark: an offer of 1 million euros, or about C$1.4 million, to buy video equipment that will ultimately be used to deliver documented Taliban outrages to a television near you - or to the popular video website YouTube.

At the end of a two-day informal meeting of defence ministers in the Netherlands, NATO’s secretary general reiterated Thursday that the alliance needs to do a better job in public relations both in home countries and Afghanistan.

“What we can do is improve our public messaging,” Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told reporters.

“Part of that public messaging could be to show to the people - and they can draw their own conclusions - what our opponent, our enemy in Afghanistan, looks like; what they do.”

[snip]

Two weeks ago, de Hoop Scheffer made a pitch to declassify video surveillance footage shot by NATO forces throughout the Afghan conflict. Allied countries have a variety of electronic intelligence-gathering means at their disposal.

The Danes responded with an initiative to provide equipment to transfer and catalogue existing video taken by the various countries involved in fighting the insurgency war. There will also be cameras so that more video can be shot.

The alliance, for all its high-tech hardware and gizmos, does not have such a facility right now, said Canadian Col. Brett Boudreau, a spokesman for Gen. Ray Henault, head of NATO’s military council.

Faced with sagging support in countries like Canada and the Netherlands for the Afghan mission, NATO sees the videos as a way of shoring up public opinion.

But one man’s YouTube video could be another man’s propoganda. De Hoop Scheffer bristled at such a suggestion in questions from a Danish journalist. Article

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Hmm.

Not even top name celebrities were able to save Olympus Security Group from being shut by police in Afghanistan this week.

The UK-based company affiliate, which works with show business clients, recently became the eighth private security company to be closed in three weeks as part of a crackdown on an industry that has hitherto operated with near impunity. Article

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While he may publicly remove the uniform, plans seem afoot to cast it as a smothering shroud of ensconced and instituionalized repression (emphasis added).

The Pakistan government is promulgating an ordinance which will enable court martial trials of civilians under the Pakistan Army Act, Attorney General Malik Qayyum has confirmed.

“Some new offences would be added to the Army Act to cover civilians,” Qayyum said, confirming that the ordinance would come in the next few days.

According to Qayyum, the proposed amendment to the Army Act would also redefine the role of agencies by giving them more powers of arbitrary detentions.

About the addition of more offences to the Army Act, Qayyum said they included abduction, use of arms, terrorism and others. He said the amended law would definitely apply to any such offence committed by tribal militants and other people.

The director general of the Inter Services Public Relations, however, denied having knowledge on the issue. The amendment to the existing law is the second attempt being made to include civilians in the Army Act after 1977.

[snip]

The proposed amendments to the Army Act would also further empower the intelligence agencies by allowing them make arbitrary detentions of civilians without framing any charges and to keep them in custody for an indefinite period. Article

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Whatever euphemisms may evolve, martial law by any other name (emphasis added).

…Almost the entire North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas have revolted against the state of Pakistan in favor of the Taliban. And polls conducted by US institutions suggest the hunt for al-Qaeda is extremely unpopular in Pakistan, which also faces wave after wave of suicide attacks in its bigger cities.

[snip]

A local television station has shown footage of people collecting money for what they call the “mujahideen”. The station reported that at one place in the Swat Valley, people collected Rs1.5 million (about US$24,500) in just three hours. Such popular support for the militancy forces Islamabad to question whether it should continue this losing battle, or launch a full-scale war against terror.

However - and this is crucial - should Musharraf decide on the latter approach, he would need to do so under special powers, such as martial law or a state of emergency.

Asia Times Online contacts confirm that in the past three days Musharraf has held several high-level meetings that included all four provincial chief ministers. The discussions centered on the issue of extraordinary powers. The same issue was raised with the policy planning section of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League.

[snip]

A senior security official speaking to Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity, said, “Major surgeries are essential in cases like Lal Masjid [a militant mosque in Islamabad], but such extraordinary events need extraordinary powers. If the courts intervene in such matters, the security forces will stop working and nobody will be able to stop the march of the Taliban into the bigger cities of Pakistan.”

The official continued, “This is a major crossroads in the ‘war on terror’ at which Washington will have to approve an all-powerful government, even at the cost of democracy. Otherwise it can say goodbye to Pakistan as a ‘war on terror’ ally as it [Pakistan] would simply not be able to get results.” Article

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Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1:

Pakistan’s Supreme Court is unlikely to rule on the legality of President Pervez Musharraf’s re-election before mid-November, the presiding judge says.

Justice Javed Iqbal also said the court would not be intimidated by threats to impose an emergency or martial law.

[snip]

“If this case does not conclude by tomorrow it will not be heard next week due to engagements of one of the judges and will be then heard on 12 November.”

That would make the timing tight as President Musharraf’s term expires on 15 November, and he is due to announce the date of general elections due by mid-January.

The main lawyer for the petitioners accused the government of using delaying tactics.

Justice Iqbal also said the Supreme Court would not be taken “hostage”.

“No threat will have any effect on this bench, whether it is martial law or [a state of] emergency,” he said. “Whatever will happen, it will be according to the constitution and rules.” Article

#2:

“You (US) twisted our (Pakistan) hand” to allow former Pakistani Prime Minister Bhutto into the country, and “America has this notion they are the best judge. They might as well hold the election in Washington.”

It is a practice in most countries what the leader is unable to say are being told through a junior official, and this is exactly what Deputy Information Minister Tariq Azim Khan told USA Today in a forthright expression of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s sentiments that were undoubtedly taken seriously by the U.S. State Department and the Bush administration.

USA Today in a major reporting piece carried in its Wednesday edition opens its report saying “the United States pressured Pakistan to allow former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to return from exile, promoting her as a moderate influence in a country facing a growing threat from Islamic extremists, a Pakistani government spokesman said.”

“She says what America wants to hear,” Deputy Information Minister Khan said in a weekend interview with USA Today. He said the U.S. government forced a reluctant Pakistan to allow her to return after eight years of self-imposed exile:” You twisted our arm.” Article

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Further fallout from this past spring’s Chaudhry crisis.

Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday sentenced former top officers of the capital police to short prison terms for manhandling the country’s Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry in March when he was suspended for allegations of misuse of authority. The five police officers, who included former Islamabad police chief and his deputy, were convicted of mistreating Chaudhry when he tried to walk to the Supreme Court building on March 13.

Television footage on the day showed police pushing the top judge and later nudging him into an official limousine, which he had refused to ride.

The officers’ counsel made a verbal request to the three-member bench to review its verdict, on which the apex court suspended the sentences and directed the guilty men to file formal pleas.

The jail terms vary between 15 days and one month for each officer, but the counsel’s plea for review put the implementation of the verdict on hold. Article

Some more:

A three-member bench headed by Judge Rana Baghwandas handed down the sentences to former Islamabad police chief Chaudhry Iftikhar and Senior Superintendent of Police Zafar Iqbal, who have already been transferred from their positions over the incident. Deputy Superintendent of Police Jameel Hashmi, Inspector Rukhsar Mehdi and guard Siraj were handed down jail sentences of one month each.

The court had earlier sentenced Islamabad Commissioner Khalid Pervez and Deputy Commissioner Muhammad Ali, but their sentences were suspended following appeals by the two officials seeking pardon.

Those sentenced yesterday have 15 days to appeal the verdict.

Another bench of the Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry ordered top government officials to file a comprehensive report on the Oct. 18 bombing that targeted former Premier Benazir Bhutto in Karachi, killing 139 people. The court expressed impatience with the investigation that has yet to identify the culprits or their motive.

Chaudhry, leading the four-member panel of judges, ordered the senior officials to file a “comprehensive report” on the bombing within a week, at which time the next hearing will be set. Article

Afghanistan summaries here and here and here.

Pakistan summaries here and here. Also this.

Afghanistan summary here and here and here.

Pakistan summary here.

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Chaos entrenched.

…Nine months after the Taliban’s takeover of Musa Qala’s district center, serious splits have formed between the foreign fighters and the majority of tribal Taliban operating throughout the district. The largest Pashtun tribe in Helmand, the Alizai (23.5%), are in secret talks with the government regarding a possible defection from the Taliban insurgency. The tribe’s leader, Mullah Abdul Salaam, is a powerful Soviet-jihad mujahidin commander and former Taliban Corps commander.

he political outcome is so serious and potentially devastating to the Taliban movement that senior Taliban officials outside of Helmand dispatched assassins to kill Mullah Addul Salaam this week but failed. Other provincial officials have confirmed that ‘secret’ peace talks have transpired and support any such developments. Unlike Helmand’s other marginalized Taliban aligned tribes, like the Noorzai and the Itzakzai, the Alizai have been included in legitimate government positions and the illicit drug trade.

But Mullah Abdul Salaam is not the only Alizai battling to fill the power vacuum in Helmand.

Sher Muhammad Akhundzada, an Alizai and the former governor of Helmand province discharged for his close ties to the drug trade, has restored himself politically and is now actively vying for the governorship once again. After President Karzai fired Sher Muhammad at the insistence of the UK contingent in Helmand, he was appointed to Parliament where he helped create a 500 man tribal militia to help combat Taliban activities in remote areas of Helmand province. This controversial lashkar essentially served to consolidate Sher Muhammad’s power base and enhanced his powerful social position.

[snip]

…Sher Muhammad is a Helmand native and still commands a strong following amongst its residents, but he is strongly despised by the UK and US forces stationed in the province. Coalition misgivings or not, a massive defection by the Alizai tribe may be all that is needed for Sher Muhammad to regain his governorship of Helmand province. Article

Add in as well that the record of U.S. involvement, understanding and interaction with the meniscus of tribal structures and allegiances in the fluid context of political and martial relational realities is far, far from unsullied and also that that legacy remains current.

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To which the response will be something along the line of the old carnival barker rsponse, to wit, “Go away, kid, ya bother me.”

At a joint meeting on Monday, the Afghan authorities reiterated their reservations about the introduction of biometric system at the Pak-Afghan border post near Chaman.

Reliable sources said the Islamabad decision to make the biometric system functional from November 1 was discussed at length during a trilateral meeting attended by Pakistani, Afghan and Nato officials.

The sources said the Afghan officials characterised the system as an obstruction in the way of free movement of Afghans living on both sides of the border. The Nato officials, however, did not object to the Pakistani government’s plan. Article

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Keeping up with the charges:

A Marine Corps legal tribunal called to investigate the killing of up to 19 Afghan civilians earlier this year has been delayed until early December, a spokesman said Tuesday.

The court of inquiry, a rare legal mechanism last used by the Marine Corps in 1956, will examine the roles of two Marines present during the shootings. It was scheduled to begin Thursday at Camp Lejeune but was tentatively pushed back because of scheduling conflicts, said Lt. Col. Sean Gibson, a Marines spokesman at Central Command.

Mark Waple, an attorney representing one of the Marines, said the defense asked for the delay so lawyers “could get through the several thousand pages of information we have to digest.”

[snip]

Lt. Gen. James Mattis, the top Marine officer at Central Command, ordered the court to examine the roles of Maj. Fred Galvin, who was a company commander with the 2nd Marine Special Operations Battalion, and Capt. Vincent Noble, the platoon commander. Neither man has been charged.

Mattis will review the court’s findings to determine if criminal charges are warranted.

Waple, Galvin’s civilian lawyer, said his client never told anyone to fire and didn’t fire shots himself. Waple said Galvin wouldn’t make public statements because “he’s a quiet, professional Marine and very much wants to keep it that way.”

Noble’s attorney didn’t immediately return a telephone call Tuesday.

None of the company’s Marines has been charged, but eight members of the company were ordered back to Camp Lejeune after the incident. The remainder of the unit was ordered to leave Afghanistan and return to ships in the Persian Gulf.

Gibson said he couldn’t provide details on why Galvin and Nobel were singled out, adding that it was unlikely other Marines would be formally examined.

The court of inquiry, which was last used to investigate the deaths of recruits at Parris Island, will be comprised of senior officers who will hear testimony before making a recommendation to Mattis. The officers’ names haven’t been released. Article

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Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1:

Pakistan’s top judge on Tuesday ordered the government to allow Nawaz Sharif to return home, saying its deportation of the former Prime Minister in September violated an earlier court ruling.

Hundreds of Mr Sharif’s supporters clapped and shouted slogans against military ruler President Pervez Musharraf outside the Supreme Court after the move by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

The judge also accused current Premier Shaukat Aziz of disobeying the Supreme Court’s orders when Mr Sharif was put onto a plane to Saudi Arabia on September 10, hours after ending his seven-year exile.

Justice Chaudhry, a thorn in the government’s side since Gen. Musharraf tried to sack him earlier in 2007, had ruled on August 23 that Mr Sharif had an “inalienable right” to come home and told authorities not to hinder him. “The judgment passed by this court is very much intact… and is required to be implemented in letter and spirit,” Justice Chaudhry told the court as he adjourned a hearing on appeals against the deportation until November 8.

“There was a clear-cut violation of our judgment.” Article

#2:

An 11-member bench of the Supreme Court said on Tuesday that it would decide a number of petitions challenging President General Pervez Musharraf’s eligibility to run for president on Friday. Article

#3:

Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf is being advised to declare emergency in the country before a possible Supreme Court decision against his eligibility, official sources said.

“Though the President is not inclined on declaring emergency, his advisers are preparing a draft decree in this regard (to declare emergency).

This will be an option with the President if the Supreme Court decides against him,” a senior government official told this newspaper.

[snip]

The official said, “Some of Gen. Musharraf’s advisers think the time is ripe to declare emergency in the country.” Article

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Chaos on hold — for now.

A tense calm prevailed in Swat district on Tuesday following a temporary ceasefire between militants and government forces on Monday as a 25-member local jirga won support from the militants and the security forces for a permanent ceasefire, officials and elders said.

“We have separately met military officials and a Taliban commander to win their support for a permanent ceasefire in the Kabal area,” Israr Ahmed, a key jirga member, said after the meetings. He said the jirga had meetings with Colonels Sarfraz and Jawad and Taliban commander Akbar Hussain to discuss the possibility of a ceasefire in Kabal and surroundings.

“Both sides extended their full cooperation and from tomorrow (Wednesday) onwards Kabal bazaar will be reopened,” Awami National Party leader and jirga member Fazle Maullah told reporters. Under the proposed permanent ceasefire deal, the jirga said, the army would restrict itself to Kabal Golf Ground whereas the militants would remove their bunkers and leave the bazaar. Article

Partial day off, so very light posting today.

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IRAQ IIO

Summaries here and here and here. Also this.

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TURKISH TIGHTROPE

Summary here.

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AFGHANISTAN

Summary here and here.

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PAKISTAN

Summary here and here.

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RAIDERS ON THE HORN

Summary here.

Unless (as rumored below) he is fleeing the country, under a parliamentary system ex-prime minister Gedi is still a sitting member.

Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi resigned Monday following a long-running feud with the president, as the chaotic country sank deeper into a political, security and humanitarian crisis.

[snip]

He handed his resignation letter to President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, who immediately appointed Gedi’s deputy, Salim Aliyow Ibrow, as interim prime minister.

[snip]

Gedi, 55, took the helm of the transitional federal government in November 2004 but has often been at loggerheads with Yusuf. The men come from Somalia’s two main rival clans.

[snip]

Yusuf had been pushing parliament to oust the premier for failing to end the Islamist-led insurgency, draft a new constitution and bolster federal government.

Critics also blame Gedi for being behind the decision to invite Ethiopian forces into Somalia to help rescue the struggling government in its battle against Islamist militants. Article

Also:

The former prime minister of the transitional federal government of Somalia, Prof. Ali Mohamed Gedi, who resigned today in the face of mounting pressure, departed to Nairobi, Kenya, by special jet.

The purpose of Gedi’s trip to Kenya is yet to be known, but unconfirmed reports suggest that Gedi and members of his government have received asylum in the United States. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here.

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Contours of chaos: awash in arms.

Many former militia commanders and residents in northern Afghanistan have been hoarding weapons in violation of the country’s disarmament laws, giving the excuse that they face a spreading Taliban insurgency from the south that government forces alone are too frail to stop, Afghan and Western officials say.

After years of moderate success for government disarmament programs, rumors of widespread defiance in the north have arisen recently among government officials and intelligence agencies in Kabul and elsewhere. Although there is little hard evidence that commanders are greatly enlarging their arsenals, officials say, some have been thwarting government programs, refusing to disarm and possibly even remobilizing militias.

The talk of rearming underscores a deepening north-south ethnic divide that some diplomats and Afghan officials privately worry could lead the way toward a shift of power back to warlords - and toward a countrywide armed conflict - if left unchecked. And the situation poses a major challenge for President Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun from the south, whose administration has failed to win the confidence of many non-Pashtun leaders and northerners.

Prices on the weapons black market in the north have skyrocketed as residents, governed by suspicion and foreboding, have kept their firearms, driving down the supply.

[snip]

The Taliban insurgency is strongest in southern and eastern Afghanistan. And while it has been able to bedevil Afghan and international troops in some other regions of the country, before this year its reach rarely stretched into the northern provinces.

But government officials report an increase in Taliban activity in the north this year, particularly in the northwest. The number of Taliban attacks on Afghan and international security forces in Balkh and the other relatively peaceful provinces of north-central Afghanistan has risen from last year, the authorities say.

Afghan and Western officials also say in addition to an increase in Taliban activity, there has been an escalation in crime and, in some areas, tensions among rival northern political factions. These officials say it is often difficult to determine who is to blame for specific violent acts.

Afghan government officials say that in certain northern districts, militia commanders have evaded government weapons inspectors by breaking down their stockpiles of illegal firearms and redistributing them throughout their communities, making them harder to find. Afghan and Western officials say weapons are hidden everywhere: in grain silos and closets, in mountain caves and in holes in the ground. Article

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Short follow-up to a story originally out of Pakistan mentioned here earlier:

Afghanistan on Sunday denied allegations it was involved in the unrest in Waziristan and Swat, saying that it would not let Afghan soil be used for anti-Pakistan activities. “We will not allow anyone to use our soil against Pakistan,” President Hamid Karzai’s spokesman Humayun Hamidzada told Daily Times, a day after the NWFP caretaker chief minister hinted at the possible involvement of India or Afghanistan in terrorist activities in the Swat region. “Using terrorism as a foreign policy tool will serve nobody’s interests; such a practice is bound to backfire,” Hamidzada said.… Article

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Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1:

In the face of escalating militant violence, the former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto has returned to her ancestral homeland under extraordinarily tight security.

It was her first big move since an assassination attempt against her killed 139 people, and in a quick and tightly scripted visit, Bhutto paid respects at the tomb of her father, the former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and waved to thousands who had gathered to mark her homecoming on Saturday after eight years of exile. But she did not speak to the assembled mass of flag-waving supporters, and concerns about another attack seemed to dictate every aspect of the trip.

[snip]

Her convoy on Saturday, which included vehicles mounted with machine-guns, sped along the route from the airport in the southern city of Sukkur to the tomb in the village of Garhi Khuda Baksh. Only bodyguards and members of the media were allowed near.

The bullet-proof four-wheel-drive was equipped with a hatch in the roof, flanked by two metal slabs. At several points she emerged to show her face to locals who worship the Bhutto name with an almost religious fervour.

[snip]

The security concerns pose a considerable challenge for Bhutto and for Pakistan as parliamentary elections that are due by January draw near. Bhutto, whose Pakistan People’s Party has long relied on mass rallies to drum up support, has said her party is talking with political consultants about other, less dangerous campaign tactics, including tape-recorded messages.

On Saturday Bhutto’s personal bodyguards - many armed with automatic weapons - appeared to be in charge of her protection, with government forces present in modest numbers. Article

More:

…Wearing a black coat and her trademark white headscarf, Bhutto went to the home of Nizmuddin Sammo, a 22-year-old supporter who was killed in the blast, and met with his mother and two sisters, promising them financial assistance from her Pakistan Peoples Party. She praised Sammo as a young man who “lost his life in the moment to save democracy … He did not bow his head before dictatorship and terrorism. His sacrifice will not be in vain.” Article

#2:

Ms Bhutto, who has been in talks about a power-sharing deal with President Musharraf, could still face several cases outside of Pakistan.

One of the most advanced is in Switzerland, where in 2003 Geneva magistrate Daniel Devaud convicted Ms Bhutto of money-laundering.

In his judgment, he found she and her close associates received around $15m in kickbacks from Pakistani government contracts with SGS and Cotecna, two Swiss companies.

Mr Devaud sentenced Ms Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari to 180 days in prison, ordering them to return $11.9m to the government of Pakistan.

“I certainly don’t have any doubts about the judgments I handed down [which] came after an investigation lasting several years, involving thousands of documents,” he has told the BBC.

Ms Bhutto contested the decision, which was made in her absence, and the case is being reheard, with the former prime minister now facing the more serious charge of aggravated money-laundering.

[snip]

Many in Pakistan assume the Swiss case will now collapse because of the deal struck between Ms Bhutto and President Musharraf.

Yet under Swiss law, even if the government of Pakistan stops co-operating, that would not automatically end legal proceedings in Switzerland.

Vincent Fournier, the Swiss judge in charge of the current case, told the BBC he planned to hand the case over to Geneva’s attorney-general this week.

A second international case involving Ms Bhutto is under way in England.

[snip]

The London case is a civil one. That means it could collapse should President Musharraf’s government decide not to pursue it.

Ms Bhutto also faces allegations concerning the United Nations oil-for-food scandal. Article

#3:

Former journalist and secretary general of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) Mushahid Hussain and two retired Supreme Court judges have become the latest addition to a growing list of nominees for the largely ceremonial post of caretaker prime minister who will conduct the next general elections. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here.

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Classic foot in mouth disease.

NWFP Caretaker Chief Minister Shamsul Mulk said on Saturday India or Afghanistan could be supporting the militants who are creating unrest in Swat.… Article

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Putting a toe into the lake of reneging?

President Pervez Musharraf would decide on doffing his uniform after the Supreme Court verdict, said a Pakistani official Saturday.

Federal Railway Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmad hoped that the top court bench would give its decision about the presidential election next week which would improve the political situation in the country. Article

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Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1:

Pakistan People’s Party Chairwoman Benazir Bhutto will be provided with foolproof security on her visit to Punjab, said Punjab Police Inspector General Ahmed Nasim on Saturday. Article

#2 — analysis du jour.

Pakistan is terribly divided by ethnicity, class and sectarian loyalties.

There is insurgency in the province of Baluchistan, Taliban-al Qaida warriors with local allies in the border lands of Afghanistan, political disquiet in the heartland of Punjab, and recurring sectarian strife in Karachi, the country’s largest city in the southern province of Sind.

The strategic public support needed by Pakistan’s ruling elite to eliminate the jihadis will not be forthcoming if Musharraf makes selective deals with some politicians in his bid to fix the outcome of the forthcoming election ahead of the vote.

This is what Musharraf has done by removing the bars against Bhutto to come back from exile abroad, while denying the same to Nawaz Sharif in defiance of the Supreme Court justices ruling in favour of the former deposed prime minister’s fundamental right to return home.

An election in which Sharif, a native of Punjab, is denied participation will be seen by most Pakistanis as rigged.

And Bhutto will discredit herself as a willing stooge of Musharraf if she contests the election from which Sharif is absent.

The stakes for Pakistan, the region and the world beyond are unforgivably high in the twin outcome of an election accepted as legitimate, and the battle against the local jihadis with their foreign cohorts. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here.

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Chaos abides.

Heavy fighting broke out in the scenic Swat valley in North West Frontier Province, the base of radical religious leader Maulana Fazlullah, who has been driving a fierce campaign to introduce pro-Taliban laws.

It came a day after a blast tore through a security forces vehicle in Swat, killing about 30 people, in an apparent reaction to the arrival of more than 2,000 troops in the area earlier this week.

“An intense exchange of fire has been reported between security forces and supporters of Maulana Fazlullah. They surrounded his hideout and met fierce resistance,” said Habibullah Khan, a local police officer.

An AFP correspondent at the scene said troops were firing heavy weapons from hilltops around the cleric’s headquarters in the village of Imamdehri, and that explosions were sending up clouds of black smoke.

Hospital and security sources said three militants were killed in the fighting.

“The clash erupted after militants fired at paramilitary forces setting up checkposts, the forces retaliated and asked for helicopter cover,” chief military spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad told AFP.

“We provided them with surveillance and gunship helicopters to give cover to fighting troops.”

Security officials said two policemen and two paramilitary soldiers were abducted by gunmen while shopping at a bazaar in Matta in the outskirts of Swat, but there was no confirmation from the army.

A spokesman for the militants told AFP that they would defend their area against security forces but denied responsibility for Thursday’s bombing.

“We will defend ourselves if the troops advance in the area. It is our home and we have a right to defend it,” spokesman Maulana Sirajuddin said.

[snip]

Fazlullah is also known as “Mullah Radio” for his fiery radio speeches in which he calls for the imposition of Islamic Sharia law and for a holy war on security forces.

The worsening situation in Swat is seen by analysts here as evidence of the growing “Talibanisation” of previously peaceful areas that border Pakistan’s lawless tribal belt along the Afghan frontier. Article

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Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1 — diametrically conflicting reports; first this:

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has said that the country’s former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who was sent into exile twice, will not be allowed to stage a comeback before the forthcoming national elections, media reported [Friday].

Musharraf gave the assurance to his political allies at a dinner on Thursday night only hours after the European parliament asked Pakistan to permit all exiled leaders to return prior to the polls scheduled for January, The News reported.

[snip]

The European parliament, through a resolution, also condemned the forced departure of Sharif last month that also went against the ruling of Pakistan’s Supreme Court. Article

Then this:

The Saudi Arabian government has given its approval to former PM Nawaz Sharif to go back to Pakistan and modalities are being worked out for his return in November, a senior leader of his PML-N party said on Friday.

“Saudi Arabia has already told Sharif that he can go back to his country whenever he likes. We are working out the modalities,” said PML-N acting president Makhdoom Javed Hashmi. Article

#2:

Pakistan’s Election Commission has issued a “final list” of voters, putting the electorate at 80 million, an increase of 28 million from the first draft list published in June, an official said yesterday.

Pakistan is expected to hold national elections by early January that are supposed to represent a transition to civilian-led democracy.

The missing voters became a contentious topic earlier this year after the commission’s first draft put the number at 52 million, 20 million fewer than voted in the 2002 election.

[snip]

“We have issued the final list of 80 million voters for the next polls,” commission Secretary Kanwar Muhammad Dilshad said. “This is an ongoing process and voters can still be included until the election schedule is announced.”

The commission had argued that the 72 million-strong electorate in 2002 was inflated, saying the National Database and Registration Authority made an error by registering many people who did not have national identity cards. However, the new list builds on the original 2002 voter base and adds millions of people who have since turned 18, Dilshad said.

Roughly half of Pakistan’s 160 million people are below 18. However, some independent poll observers still had reservations about the new list, saying the process had not been transparent. Musharraf is under international pressure to ensure polls due early next year are free and fair. Article

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Lessons unlearned.

In 2004, U.S.-contracted aircraft secretly sprayed harmless plastic granules over poppy fields in Afghanistan to gauge public reaction to using herbicides to kill the opium poppies that help fund the Taliban and al-Qaida.

The mysterious granules ignited a major outcry from poor farmers, tribal chiefs and government officials up to President Hamid Karzai, who demanded to know if the spraying was part of a poppy-eradication program. At the time, U.S officials up to the level of Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad denied knowledge of the program.

U.S. officials declined to identify the agency that oversaw the test spraying, but noted that the State Department oversees U.S. counter-narcotics efforts in Afghanistan. The department’s bureau of international narcotics and law enforcement declined to comment. U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the tests remain classified.

The Bush administration now is pressing Karzai to spray real herbicide against what’s expected to be another record opium-poppy crop, which is refined into heroin. There’s wide opposition – from Karzai and his government, NATO allies such as Britain with troops in Afghanistan and even major parts of the U.S. government, including the Pentagon, the CIA and U.S. military commanders.

Afghanistan’s opium production is one of the biggest challenges confronting the United States in Afghanistan: No matter what action the U.S. government takes, it seems likely to benefit Taliban insurgents.

Opponents fear that spraying would trigger a backlash against Karzai, who’s already politically weak, said U.S. and European officials, and deliver a propaganda bonanza to the Taliban. At the same time, a great percentage of the proceeds of opium-poppy farming, if unchecked, will go to the Taliban.

The officials who confirmed details of the 2004 spraying for the first time made no secret of their opposition to the program that’s being contemplated.

“It was a dry run,” a senior State Department official said. “People freaked out.”

“The results of those inert tests were: ‘Don’t do this, don’t do this,’” recalled another senior U.S. official. “Every goat with a bad ear and every [legitimate] crop that doesn’t grow will be blamed” on the spraying.

In the 2004 trials, U.S.-contracted aircraft dispersed the plastic granules over isolated poppy fields in the Shinwar district of eastern Nangarhar province and a part of southwestern Farah province in late 2004.

Farmers and local officials reported at the time that mysterious aircraft released the granules at night, and they worried that the material was toxic and would harm their families and destroy livestock and crops.

The outcry is only one reason for Karzai’s resistance to the latest State Department plan for extensive ground and aerial spraying of poppy fields before a projected record harvest of opium next spring. Karzai’s agriculture ministry said it opposes spraying because the chemicals could destroy legal subsistence crops often cultivated alongside poppy. The public-health ministry has warned of the threat spraying poses to drinking water, 80 percent of which comes from streams and open water sources.

[snip]

Ali Jalali, a scholar at the National Defense University who was Afghanistan’s interior minister when the spraying trials were conducted, recalled the “strong reaction” the tests provoked. He warned that the outcry would be even greater if large-scale spraying is undertaken.

“There is a strong opposition from the Afghan government and a perception that it [herbicide] can harm animals and human beings and crops,” he said. “Whether it is true or not, this is a perception there. The Taliban can exploit this.” Article