With friends like these…

Among the countries congratulating Mr Ahmadinejad on his victory were Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuela and North Korea. Source

More:

As European capitals appear to weigh their reaction to the Iranian poll against their desire to engage Tehran in constructive talks, most of Iran’s neighboring states have opted for simply congratulating the winner.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai was the first head of state to do so as he called Ahmadinejad on June 14. Karzai’s office said he congratulated the Iranian people “for making a decision about their destiny” and hoped Afghanistan’s ties with Iran would continue to strengthen during Ahmadinejad’s second four-year term in office.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani followed shortly after with a telegram to Ahmadinejad expressing confidence that their two countries “friendly and neighborly relations” will improve in the coming years.

Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari, told Ahmadinejad the victory was “an acknowledgment of your outstanding services.”

[snip]

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Musa also congratulated Ahmadinejad….Source

Other side of the coin: Unlike major capitals of the EU, Canada voices sharply stated outrage.

It’s coming to a boil, and bound to be nasty and brutish — but not short.

… the “army’s already in action” in Waziristan, though full-scale combat does not appear to have started. Military analysts believe NATO forces in Afghanistan are likely to launch a parallel operation to cut off the militants’ retreat.

The assault on Baitullah Mehsud comes after a challenger emerged from his own tribe, Qari Zainuddin, who is being secretly backed by the Pakistan state and is already believed to have weakened the fearsome warlord. [More on that here – voxd]

[snip]

Pakistan has fought Mehsud three times since 2004 but has lost each encounter and then been forced to cut a peace deal that only emboldened the Taliban. This time, locals living in towns on the edge of Mehsud’s South Waziristan lair report massive movement of military men and equipment, on a scale not seen in the past. Source

Waziristan bloodbath (emphasis added) next?

Or a semi-shrouded message to specific or ancillary factions to lay low or pull back?

Or a showpiece, transitory operation which will peter out as before?

And little to no mention anywhere of bustling Quetta (see again here and additional citations), where criminally-geared and terror-affiliated segments (that is to say, directly relevant to and revolving around operations in Afghanistan rather than the more local sovereignty movement or breakaway factions) yet plainly exist and operate visibly and with near impunity.

The high-profile convention of clerics in the Pakistani capital was the second in three days to condemn suicide attacks and beheadings, two of the Taliban’s favored tactics, as “haram,” or contrary to Islam.

Both conventions also supported the Pakistani military offensive against Taliban in Swat and two adjoining districts, although almost all the clerics share the militants’ goal of establishing Islamic law in Pakistan.

[snip]

The shift, coupled with intense pressure from Washington and a more sober assessment of the threat posed by the militants, appears to have roused the government of President Asif Ali Zardari.

Zardari has said that Pakistan would extend its military offensive to Waziristan, the area along the Afghan border that’s a base for Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, and also for al Qaida. That would trigger a major conflict, in which the support of the clergy could be vital.

[snip]

A deeply religious people, Pakistanis tend to take guidance from senior clerics, and their previous ambivalence and confusion about Islamic extremism rose in part from the clergy’s silence or from denials that Muslims could have perpetrated acts of violence against civilians.

At the two religious conventions, however, there was even criticism of the Pakistani military’s past patronage of jihadist groups.

“We are now harvesting the crop we sowed three decades ago,” Mufti Muneeb-ur-Rehman told a lively convention of some 4,000 clerics on Sunday, referring to the policy of backing Afghan “mujahedeen” guerrillas in the 1980s under U.S.-backed dictator Gen. Zia-ul-Haq.

[snip]

Sunday’s meeting was organized by clerics from the Barelvi sect, the dominant Islamic school in South Asia, a Sunni creed that preaches a tolerant brand of religion but whose voice is often drowned out by firebrands from more radical sects.

Tuesday’s conference was sponsored by the government and involved broader participation, including from Shiites, Pakistan’s other main Islamic denomination, and even some clerics from the Deobandi school, a branch of the Taliban that preaches a purist Islam akin to the Wahabi [sic] faith of Osama bin Laden.

While the majority of Pakistanis are Barelvi, the Deobandis run most of the madrassas — Islamic schools — that churn out religious scholars and foot soldiers for the Taliban and other extreme religious groups. Source

One meanwhile fervently hopes that there is strong and constant backchannel pressure coming from the U.S., the U.K., Russia and China, directed at India to put all and any moves regarding Kashmir, with the exception of negotiations, totally on ice for the duration.

Q: What does mixing Rube Goldberg, Ian Fleming and Darth Vader produce?

A: Pakistan.

Ye old scribe’s jaw dropped further and further with each more incredulous paragraph.

Afghanistan summary here.

Pakistan summaries here and here and here.

73½ months on…

The conflict in Afghanistan has reached “crisis proportions”, with the resurgent Taliban present in more than half the country and closing in on Kabul, a report said on Wednesday.

[snip]…The insurgency now controls vast swaths of unchallenged territory including rural areas, some district centres, and important road arteries.” Article

Noted FYI:

Switzerland announced on Wednesday that it would end its four years’ cooperation with the NATO-led international forces in Afghanistan by recalling its military personnel.

Two Swiss army officers, currently working with a German team in the northeastern Kunduz province, will return home by March next year, Swiss Defense Minister Samuel Schmid told a press conference in Bern, the Swissinfo website reported.

Schmid said he took the decision for security reasons. The NATO-led mission in Afghanistan has become a peace enforcement operation rather than a peacekeeping duty, he said.

According to Schmid, a continued Swiss military presence in Afghanistan - although “rather symbolic” - is impossible because it goes against the spirit of the constitution and is not in line with the law.

[snip]

According to the Swiss Defense Ministry, the nature of NATO’s engagement in Afghanistan has changed since 2005. But its mission has progressively turned into a campaign against insurgents.

Even in the regions where warlords and fighters only carry out sporadic activity, the mission has faced difficulties because of the need for troops to resort to self-protection measures.

In areas of the country where the Taliban have regained strength, reconstruction work has become practically impossible, the Swiss authorities said. Article

Turning the aphorism on its head, the chaotic whole is less than the sum of its parts.

National unity has always been a difficult concept in Afghanistan, a country with a bewildering array of ethnic and tribal groups, and language often serves as the lightening rod for controversy. The issue recently resurfaced with a government plan to dramatically increase the number of Pashto-language schools in Kabul, the predominantly Dari-speaking capital.

While some politicians applauded the education ministry’s initiative, it has prompted a strong backlash from others.

During a roundtable discussion on Tolo TV, Kabul member of parliament Najibullah Kabuli went as far as calling the initiative a “crime”, and accused Education Minister Hanif Atmar of seeking to sow disunity among schoolchildren.

[snip]

Dari and Pashto are by far the most widespread languages in Afghanistan, and very roughly speaking prevail in the north and south, respectively. Kabul parliamentary Fawzia Nasiryar pointed out that many other languages are spoken throughout Afghanistan, for instance Uzbek and Turkmen. If Kabul’s Pashtuns have access to education in their language, other linguistic minorities should be granted the same right, she argued.

“This action by the education minister is a tribal action,” she claimed. “If it isn’t tribal, why hasn’t he built schools for other languages? The minister is taking such action only for the sake of his tribe.”

Ministry spokesman Afghan defended the cabinet’s decision to create separate schools for Pashtuns, who are by far the largest group in Kabul using a language other than Dari in daily life.

There are about 200,000 Pashtun students in the city, according to ministry statistics. Of those, only 20,000 actually study in Pashto. Just five out of Kabul’s 175 schools are Pashto-only, while nine more provide classes in both Pashto and Dari. Article

Pakistan aboil.

#1:

Pakistan’s ousted chief justice remains under arrest, a day after officials said judges detained under emergency rule could move around freely.

Iftikhar Chaudhry tried to leave his Islamabad residence but was stopped from doing so by security forces.

Meanwhile, President Musharraf has amended the constitution to prevent future legal challenges to his actions.

[snip]

Mr Chaudhry tried to leave his residence on Wednesday but was stopped from going to the Supreme Court by large numbers of security forces ringing his residence.

Another judge, former presidential candidate Wajihuddin Ahmed, tried to visit Mr Chaudhry and was briefly detained along with a lawyer. Article

A bit more:

The capital police Wednesday arrested lawyers and members of civil society including the former presidential candidate, Justice (Retd.) Wajihuddin Ahmed and Advocate Athar Min-Allah here from Judges Colony and took them to an unknown location.

The administration intercepted the above persons by erecting barricades and deploying heavy security forces on the way leading to the Chief Justice House and later arrested them in front of an area hotel. Article

#2 — and it is damned past time for a voice in authority to squarely and robustly lay this on the table.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights [said] on Tuesday the restoration of the independence of Pakistan’s judiciary is as important as the holding of elections.

[snip]

The UN rights chief said Pakistan had turned down her request for a visit but she would be in transit in Islamabad Wednesday.

She said it was worrying that “nobody seems to be calling for a reversal on this attack on the judiciary,” adding it remained to be seen if the democratic process could “regain its momentum” after the recent events.

“I think a lot of judges have refused to pledge to take an oath of allegiance to the new regime, but because of the state of emergency we haven’t seen the level of protest that otherwise could have manifested itself,” she said. Article

Analysis du jour:

In 1999, after mounting a coup, General Pervez Musharraf spoke to the nation late at night. One of the reasons he attributed for the necessity of the coup was Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif disturbing the integrity of the Pakistan army by summarily replacing Musharraf with another general. That telling observation indicated the army’s perception of its role in Pakistan.

The integrity of the army was more important than the integrity of the country, and for that an elected government had to be removed. This perception has guided the Pakistan army through the country’s independent history. The past and future of Musharraf is better understood through the conviction of the Pakistan army’s image of itself.

The question being asked now is if, when and in what manner Musharraf would leave office. But the real question is: How would the Pakistan army respond to the possibility of Musharraf either continuing in or leaving the political scene?… Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here and here.

Pakistan aboil.

#1:

Three defiant judges of the Supreme Court, who are presently under house arrest after imposition of emergency, have now declared in their detailed judgment submitted before the SC last Friday that General Musharraf could not be allowed to contest the presidential elections.

[snip]

These judges who had refused to take oath under the PCO, have also observed in their joint judgment, which has not been released to the media, that continuation of Musharraf as the army chief beyond December 31, 2004 was “illegal and unlawful”.

The judges, Justice Rana Bhagwandas, Justice Sardar Mohammad Raza Khan and Mian Shakirullah Jan, were part of the nine-member bench which had dismissed the petitions of Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Imran Khan on September 28, 2007 with regard to the question whether Musharraf could contest election from the present assemblies with or without uniform. Article

#2:

Thousands of people fled from a valley in northwest Pakistan as security forces stepped up an offensive against pro-Taliban militants, while fighting killed 19 people. Advancing ground troops killed 15 militants in the Shangla district in the scenic Swat valley, the site of fierce clashes with insurgents led by hardline Islamist cleric Maulana Fazlullah in recent weeks in which more than 300 people have died. Article

#3:

Police in Pakistan’s southern port city of Karachi on Tuesday baton-charged journalists protesting curbs on the media imposed by President Pervez Musharraf and arrested more 150 people, news reports said.

Several demonstrators were injured in the clashes, which occurred outside the city’s press club, Geo News reported on its website, the television channel’s only service still operating after it was shut down by the government at midnight Friday. Article

It’s not called critical mass for nothing.

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are already under American control even as analysts are working themselves into a lather on the subject, a well-regarded intelligence journal has said.

In a stunning disclosure certain to stir up things in Washington’s (and in Islamabad and New Delhi’s) strategic community, the journal Stratfor reported on Monday that the “United States delivered a very clear ultimatum to Musharraf in the wake of 9/11: Unless Pakistan allowed US forces to take control of Pakistani nuclear facilities, the United States would be left with no choice but to destroy those facilities, possibly with India’s help.”

“This was a fait accompli that Musharraf, for credibility reasons, had every reason to cover up and pretend never happened, and Washington was fully willing to keep things quiet,” the journal, which is widely read among the intelligence community, said.

The Stratfor commentary came in response to an earlier New York Times story that reported that the Bush administration had spent around $100 million to help Pakistan safeguard its nuclear weapons, but left it unclear if Washington has a handle on the arsenal. Article

Contours of ceremonial chaos.

Hamid Karzai flew to Kandahar last month for a ceremony that later emerged as a key moment in the war against the Taliban, although many people here are still arguing about whether the Afghan president averted disaster or opened a new tribal conflict with his visit to the south.

Mr. Karzai arrived shortly after the legendary warrior Mullah Naqib died of a heart attack on Oct. 11. As hundreds of mourners gathered in the front garden of Mr. Naqib’s home on the north side of Kandahar city, the president stood and placed a silver turban on the boyish head of Kalimullah Naqibi, the tribal elder’s 26-year-old son.

[snip]

Some politicians in the city approved of the President’s action, viewing it as a swift intervention to give the tribe a leader with firm loyalty to the central government. Mr. Naqibi and his supporters say the move was purely decorous, a symbol of the President’s approval for a decision already taken by top elders in the tribe.

But senior members of the Alokozai’s leadership are publicly expressing their discontent, blaming Mr. Karzai for interfering in their affairs and violating their traditions. Installing an untested young man as their tribal leader has hurt security, they say, pointing to the fact that, within weeks of the decision, Canadian and Afghan troops were required to push back the first major Taliban attack on Alokozai lands north of the city.

General Khan Mohammed, an Alokozai tribesman who serves as an adviser to the Interior Minister, said he recently visited Mr. Karzai at his palace with another senior elder to complain about the selection of the young leader.

“I said, ‘Why did you put the turban on Kalimullah’s head?’” Gen. Mohammed said in an interview at his home in the capital. “The tribe didn’t choose this leader. I told him, you’re increasing the violence in our lands.”

[snip]

Variations of the same question are asked in private by senior politicians in Kandahar, who say the disgruntled contenders for the Alokozai leadership are trying to revoke the blessings they have already bestowed on Mr. Naqibi.

But the rules of Pashtun tribal etiquette forbade anybody from raising a fuss in the wake of Mr. Naqib’s death, Gen. Mohammed said, so the elders in attendance that night didn’t feel comfortable raising their voices against the President. Article

Afghanistan summary here.

Pakistan summaries here and here and .

Internal chaos abides.

The Pakistani military said Wednesday it had killed at least 33 militants, while two soldiers died in rocket attacks, as heavily-armed supporters of a pro-Taliban cleric gained control over a third town in the north-western valley of Swat. Article

Internal political chaos abides.

Pakistani authorities have charged former cricket star and opposition politician Imran Khan under the country’s anti-terror act, which includes penalties such as life imprisonment.

Khan was arrested Wednesday, shortly after arriving for a rally at Punjab University in the eastern city of Lahore. It was his first public appearance since the imposition of emergency rule.

In a separate development, Pakistani opposition politicians are considering plans to form a united front against the state of emergency and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Article

More. (And also a comment from ye old scribe noting the abject silence from the U.S., the EU, etc., etc. regarding restoration of the judiciary.)/p>

The counsel of General Pervez Musharraf on Wednesday submitted in the Supreme Court a written reply to the petition of Tikka Iqbal against November 3 Proclamation of Emergency, praying that the petition be dismissed and the Proclamation be validated. Raja Ibrahim Satti advocate filed the reply through advocate-on- record Ejaz Muhammad Khan a day before the 10-member full court is due to resume hearing of the two constitutional petitions on Thursday.

The other petition has been moved by Watan Party through its counsel Barrister Zafarullah Khan.

In the reply, the counsel stated that the petition was not maintainable as the Article 3 of the Provisional Constitution Order (PCO) clearly lays down that “No court including the Supreme Court, the Federal Shariat Court, the High Courts and any Tribunal or other authority shall call in question the PCO, the Oath of Office (Judges) Order 2007 or any order made in pursuance thereof.”

The PCO also lays down that “No judgment, decree, writ, order or process whatsoever shall be made or issued by any Court or tribunal against the President or the Prime Minister or any other authority designated by the President.” Article

Short of an armada of airlifts, the alternate options for permissible overland transport are highly limited, particularly with winter setting in.

The U.S. military is looking at alternate routes to send supplies to troops in Afghanistan in case the political crisis in Pakistan makes current supply lines unavailable, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

The U.S. military sends 75 percent of its supplies for the Afghanistan war through or over Pakistan, including 40 percent of the fuel sent to troops, the Defense Department said.

[snip]

…Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said the military had to make contingency plans due to importance of those supply lines.

“There are efforts underway right now to figure out contingency supply lines to our troops in Afghanistan if it becomes necessary to alter the way we now support our troops in Afghanistan,” Morrell said.

“In light of the fact that there is civil unrest in Pakistan, in light of the fact that there is a state of emergency in Pakistan, we feel it is responsible, given the importance of the Pakistani supply lines to our operations in Afghanistan, to have a contingency plan.”

Morrell said the United States does not send ammunition through Pakistan.

“No matter what is happening on the ground in Pakistan, it will not impact us being able to provide ammunition to troops in Afghanistan,” he said. Article

Rules and procedures exist not only to provide instruction and guidance, but also accountability.

Canadian diplomats and corrections officers in Kandahar have come across what they consider to be a clear and “credible” case of torture involving a Canadian-captured Taliban fighter.

The revelation came as the federal government was forced to release over 1,000 pages of court documents that outline in graphic detail some of the abuse claims made by Afghan prisoners.

Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier told the House of Commons about the latest case, which brings to seven the number of complaints Canadian authorities have received since Ottawa signed a revised prisoner transfer agreement with the government of Afghan president Hamid Karzai.

Senior government officials, speaking on background late in the evening, said the incident was discovered during the latest inspection by Canadian authorities of a jail – likely belonging to Afghanistan’s notorious intelligence service.

“Our trained observers came across particularly credible evidence of mistreatment,” said a senior official, who indicated the injuries were physical.

“We have since heard from the Afghans that their investigation has already been launched and they come to an initial indication of wrongdoing and that they’re considering measures that include both firing personnel and prosecution.”

Published reports last spring said as many as 30 prisoners – captured by Canadian troops, but handed over to local authorities – complained of being beaten and abused prior to the signing of a new transfer arrangement last May. Six more cases surfaced in the wake of the new deal.

[snip]

Both the Canadian and Afghan governments promised investigations into the allegations last spring.

Senior officials said, with the exception of the latest case, the investigations are either incomplete – or inconclusive because record-keeping in Afghan jails is spotty.

Human rights officials have raised concern that Canadians maybe held liable under international law if they’ve been deemed to have handed someone over to be tortured.

A senior federal official, with responsibility for United Nations matters, said the issue falls into a legal gray area and that Canadians might not be accountable as long as it’s demonstrated they took every precaution to ensure torture didn’t take place.

But a University of Ottawa law professor, who first raised concern about prisoner treatment, dismissed the defence.

“We have not met our obligation under international law to avoid aiding and abetting torture,” said Amir Attaran. “If you deliver the body to them in good faith and they go away and torture, you’re safe? There’s no disputing we now know torture is taking place.”

[snip]

The court records show that Canadian officials are not sure what happened to a number of the prisoners it transfered to the Afghans prior to the signing of the new arrangement. They were also put in the embarassing position of writing to the United States, which took custody of Canadian-captured insurgents between 2002-2005, to determine what happened to some of them. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here and here.

Also here and here.

Intrnal chaos abides.

Pakistani helicopter gunships killed four militants and destroyed bunkers and ammunition dumps at a village in a northwestern region where a pro-Taleban rebel has led an insurrection, the military said yesterday.

More than 200 people have been killed in clashes between fighters commanded by Maulana Fazlullah and security forces over the past few weeks in Swat, a picturesque, mountainous district of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) that was formerly a tourist haven. Article

Internal electoral chaos abides.

Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto demanded the resignation of U.S.-backed President Gen. Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday, dashing Western hopes that the two moderate leaders would form an alliance to confront strengthening Islamic extremists.

Bhutto, just placed under house arrest for the second time since her return from exile, said she was working to forge a partnership with Nawaz Sharif, the man overthrown as prime minister in a 1999 coup by Musharraf.

[snip]

Authorities imposed the detention to block her from staging a protest procession to the capital, Islamabad. The march went ahead but was quickly stopped by police, and security forces also clashed with anti-government protesters in other cities.

Tuesday’s events were in many ways a replay of Friday, when police sealed Bhutto inside her Islamabad villa for a single day and rounded up hundreds, possibly thousands, of her supporters to stop a mass rally she had called outside the capital.

Bhutto said thousands of her supporters were again rounded up Tuesday, although officials denied detentions on such a large scale. This time, Bhutto’s reaction was much sharper – calling the crackdown the “breaking point” in her relations with Musharraf.

“I’m calling for Gen. Musharraf to step down, to quit, to leave, to end martial law,” she said in a phone call with a group of journalists. “Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country. We cannot afford this kind of chaos and instability,” Bhutto said.

“I could not serve as prime minister with Gen. Musharraf as president. I wish I could,” she added.

[snip]

In the southern city of Karachi, Bhutto supporters angered by her detention fired on two police stations, and police used tear gas to disperse them. A 9-year-old boy and a woman were wounded in the crossfire of a gunbattle between demonstrators and police, witnesses said.

In unusually strong criticism of a key ally, U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson on Tuesday described emergency rule as an “ominous development.” Article

External confusion/chaos/wishful thinking abides.

“Washington’s approach to Pakistan has always been that the devil we know is better than the devil we don’t know. But there is every reason to believe that with Musharraf and Pakistan, that is not the case,” says Selig Harrison, director of the Asia Program at the Center for International Policy in Washington. “Musharraf has blinded Washington over and over again with a mastery of blackmail, but in the two areas we worry most about – nuclear proliferation and Islamist extremism – there are alternatives that are just as good, if not better.”

Captivated by Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power, linchpin in the US-led war on terror, and the presumed home of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, the US has treated the military leader as if he were the last stand before nuclear Armageddon or a new triumph for Islamist extremism, many experts say. Musharraf came to power in a coup in 1999.

A Pakistan with Gen. Ashfak Kayani as military chief, for example, and a civilian government elected by the Pakistani people, would be at least as effective in opposing the extremists’ rise and perhaps better at safeguarding Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Many observers believe General Kayani is Musharraf’s likely successor as head of the armed forces.

[snip]

Another factor standing in the way of US backing for a real political transition in Pakistan could be private deals the US may have made with Musharraf over US actions vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Iran.

“This is just speculation,” Harrison says, “but it’s not hard to imagine some kind of agreements that might have been made with Musharraf about intelligence or special operations” in Iran or concerning the Islamist communities in Pakistan’s northern frontier areas “that are influencing our actions in this crisis.” Article

Constant punctuations of civilian slaughter.

The Polish Defense Ministry says seven soldiers serving with the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan have been detained for the killing of civilians in the eastern part of the country.

In a statement released Tuesday, Polish military prosecutors say the soldiers were detained for violating international law, specifically the Hague and Geneva Conventions. Article

Summary here and here.

#1 — no other term than rubber stamp will suffice.

The National Assembly (lower house)of Pakistan Wednesday passed a resolution endorsing proclamation of emergency in the country and issuance of the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO).

The Pakistan People’s Party members boycotted the assembly session. The other opposition members have already resigned the assembly and only the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Q and its allied groups attended the session.

[snip]

The house passed another resolution congratulating President Pervez Musharraf on his re-election. Article

#2:

Supporters of Benazir Bhutto clashed with police in front of parliament Wednesday after she urged party activists into the streets to protest emergency rule, deepening the uncertainty engulfing a Pakistan already shaken by rising Islamic militancy.

Seeking to position herself as the only leader able to unite the country to confront Islamic extremism, the former prime minister toughened her rhetoric against President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, but she left open the possibility of resuming talks if he ends the crackdown.

[snip]

Saying more than 400 members of her party were arrested Wednesday, Bhutto said she had not negotiated with Musharraf since he resorted to strong-arm tactics over the weekend. But she said talks could resume if he yielded to growing domestic and international pressure to end emergency rule.

“If Gen. Musharraf wants to kick start the negotiations for a peaceful transition, then he must revive the constitution, retire as chief of the army staff by Nov. 15 and hold the election as scheduled,” Bhutto said.

She said her party would stage a “long march” over the 200 miles from Lahore to Islamabad on Tuesday unless Musharraf agreed to her conditions. Article

More:

Bhutto said her talks with Musharraf reached a “deadlock” when the general imposed emergency rule and she has no meetings scheduled with him.

“We were engaged in political dialogue for peaceful transition to democracy,” Bhutto said. “Now we find ourselves back in a dictatorship.”

Bhutto said Musharraf must quit as army chief by Nov. 15 as promised, an election schedule must be announced by Nov. 16 and elections must be held before Jan. 15.

“Musharraf can open the doors for negotiation after meeting our demands,” she said.

Bhutto also demanded that the ban on thrice-elected prime ministers should be ended. She was prime minister of Pakistan twice between 1988 and 1996.

“Her comment about deadlock seems to be an emotional statement,” Information Minister Mohammed Ali Durrani said in a phone interview from Islamabad. “Every politician knows there is no dead end in political discussions. The long march plan is just a statement and there are many ifs and buts in her statements.” Article

Additional info:

Benazir Bhutto, the one Pakistani politician believed capable of inspiring mass protests, [Wednesday] vowed to lead a “long march” to bring down the regime of the president, General Pervez Musharraf, unless the military dictator lifts the state of emergency and holds elections.

It could lead to a bloody confrontation between the country’s powerful military and Ms Bhutto’s supporters.

After months of prevarication over confronting Gen Musharraf, and amid behind-the-scenes negotiations, Ms Bhutto, a former prime minister who recently returned from exile, finally broke with him.…

[snip]

Under the state of emergency, all public meetings are banned, but Ms Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has pledged to go ahead with a planned rally tomorrow in Rawalpindi, a city that borders Islamabad and houses the headquarters of the army.

However, the mayor of Rawalpindi, Javed Akhlas, said: “We will ensure that they don’t violate the ban on rallies, and if they do it, the government will take action according to the law.”

He added that there was a “strong threat” of another suicide attack against Ms Bhutto - her jubilant homecoming last month was shattered by suicide bombers, who killed more than 140 people.

[snip]

If this was indeed the first shot in a rebellion led by Ms Bhutto, Pakistan’s military ruler is under grave threat.

Her demand he stick by a previous pledge to give up his army job and serve as a civilian head of state, will be very difficult to meet.

Hasan Askari Rizvi, a political analyst, said: “The moment he quits as army chief, the army is not in his control. Musharraf would then become an isolated person as he does not have a political base.”

Some pointed out that Ms Bhutto did not demand that the judges Gen Musharraf sacked be reinstated. Those same judges had threatened to revive corruption allegations against her. Article

#3 — shorter version: Nothing to see here; move along. Or else.

Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf will likely end emergency rule in two or three weeks, the president of the ruling party said in an interview with Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper.

“I’m sure it will end in two to three weeks as President Pervez Musharraf is aware of the consequences of long emergency rule,” Pakistan Muslim League president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain is quoted as saying in the English-language paper’s Wednesday edition.

[snip]

Hussain rejected rumours Musharraf could be overthrown, saying the president has the full support of the army.

“This could be a wishful thinking of some people but I can assure you that Musharraf is not going anywhere.” Article

#4 — actions belie the propagandistic claptrap just above and bespeak ongoing dictatorial crackdown.

The government Wednesday banned the sale of satellite dishes in major cities of Karachi, Rawalpindi and Lahore to block the access to local and foreign news channels, leaving state-run channels the only medium of information on the prevailing crucial political situation of the country.

Dozens of private news channels were taken off the air on Saturday afternoon ahead of the proclamation of state of emergency in the country by General Pervez Musharraf. In fact disappearance of news channels intrigued the nation about the impending extra-constitutional step.

The people were left at the mercy of state-run news channel that has been running and re-running Musharraf address to the nation, in which he has justified his decision and explained to the international community to understand the criticality of the situation.

Since then people have been fishing for news about what is happening across the country and implications of the emergency.

The quest has brought back the glory satellite dishes of the early 1990s in the two major cities and adjoining areas. “Prior to emergency, satellite dish prices were between USD 100 to USD 120 but now their prices have shoot up to USD 200 to USD 300 within last few days”, said Ijaz Khokhar, a vendor, who has sold more than 100 dishes in last four days to the general public as well different organizations including two banks.

[snip]

“We had become addicted to round-the-clock news, particularly during the political turmoil the country had been going through most part of the year”, said another buyer, adding that the ban on sale of dishes will further complicate the situation.

To control the information frenzy, the government Wednesday banned the sale of satellite dishes in the major cities. Police sources told KUNA that in Lahore police arrested 14 sellers who resisted closing of their shops. Police raided our shops without showing us any orders and told us to close our shops, said Ayaz Ali Khan, who has a shop in the Imperial Market of adjacent Rawalpindi city. Article

#5 — shorter John Negroponte: All the eggs are in one basket.

Analysis of basically that same shorthand here.

Pakistan summary here and here. Also this.

Dozens of paramilitary troops and police surrendered their weapons to militants and retreated from the mountain town of Kalam in the Swat Valley — dubbed Pakistan’s Switzerland — early Wednesday, a police official said.

Announcements about the advance were made on a pirate FM radio station run by cleric Mullah Fazlullah, as militants hoisted their party flag on police stations and government buildings, and distributed sweets.

[snip]

Before taking Kalam, which lies at the end of the valley, they captured the town of Bahrain, a strategic town poised over the raging Swat river, having seized the town of Madyan later Tuesday, officials and residents said.

“There was no fighting, police had already vacated their post in Bahrain, and later retreated to Kalam when they came to know the militants were heading towards their police station,” the police official said.

But Fazlullah’s aide, Maulana Shah Dauran, said in a radio address that militants also took control of a paramilitary base in Kalam manned by a platoon.

[snip]

There was no comment from the administration in Mingora, the main town in Swat valley, and top officials in Peshawar, the capital of North West Frontier Province.

An official privately admitted the militants were in control of around 70 percent of the valley’s 94-kilometre (60-mile) stretch from Sangota to Kalam.

The government hold was confined to Mingora and the nearby town of Saidu Sharif, which has the valley’s lone airport, the official said. Article

#1: quick takes, all from the same web page.

Pakistani authorities cut mobile phones in the capital Islamabad on Tuesday as the country’s sacked chief justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry addressed a meeting of lawyers by telephone, witnesses and officials said. Justice Chaudhry, who was ousted by President Pervez Musharraf on Saturday after the declaration of a state of emergency, urged lawyers to hold protests in a speech also broadcast on private television. After a few minutes the line that the judge was speaking over was cut and mobile phones in the capital went dead, AFP correspondents and witnesses said. “I want lawyers to spread my message: the time for sacrifice has come and to stand up for the constitution,” he said in his speech. The sound of cheering could be heard in the background. “Tell people about this illegal and unconstitutional emergency.” “The ruling junta was afraid that the court would rule against them but people are aware that the Supreme Court has always held the constitution above all else and provided justice to the people,” justice Chaudhry added. A telecommunications official said the shutdown was temporary. “The government has closed the mobile service in some sectors (of Islamabad) and they have said it was just a temporary measure,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

[snip]

Pakistan’s Cabinet on Tuesday discussed possibly delaying crucial parliamentary elections by up to three months after President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency, a minister said. “The issue of holding elections was discussed at length, and after attending the Cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, I feel that the elections may be delayed by two months,” the minister told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “There will not be a delay of elections for longer than three months.” “There is no final decision,” he said. A government spokesman did not immediately respond to calls seeking comment about Tuesday’s meeting. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto said the government had already decided to delay the elections by at least a year. “They have postponed the election for one or two years. But they have not announced it as such. I know this from the inside,” she told AP. She did not provide details of the source of her information and challenged President Musharraf to prove her wrong by going on television to tell the country that the elections would go ahead as planned.

[snip]

Militants seized the town of Madyan in the scenic Swat valley in northwest Pakistan Tuesday and hoisted their flags over buildings after security forces surrendered, police and residents said. Madyan was the third to come under the effective control of followers of cleric Maulana Fazlullah. “They seized Madyan town today, they have already overrun Matta and Khawazakhela towns” in their earlier push, a police official told AFP on condition of anonymity. “The militants are continuing their advance,” the police official said. Residents said the militants were in complete control of Madyan and were patrolling the town. At least 37 police and paramilitary soldiers left the main police station after militants surrounded the town and assured them that they would not be harmed, residents said. Police also retreated from two more police posts in nearby villages.

[snip]

Four more supreme court judges belonging to Sindh, N.W.F.P and Balochistan were administered oath of office Tuesday morning , Ptv reported. They are: Mr Justice Mossa K. Laghari (Sindh), Mr justice Ejazul Hasan and Mr Justice Qaim Jan (NWFP), and Mr Justice Ejaz Yusuf (Balochistan). Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar administerd the oath. The induction of these four new judges brings the total strength of supreme court judges to eight. Source

#2 — op-ed du jour:

Desperate to hold onto power, Pervez Musharraf has discarded Pakistan’s constitutional framework and declared a state of emergency.

To stifle the independent judiciary and free media. Artfully, though shamelessly, he has tried to sell this action as an effort to bring about stability and help fight the war on terror more effectively. Nothing could be further from the truth. If Pakistan’s history is any indicator, his decision to impose martial law may prove to be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back.

[snip]

There is widespread public resentment in response to these moves. Rather than taking responsibility for the deteriorating security situation (as evidenced by regular suicide bomb attacks) and the increasing Talibanization of the tribal areas, Musharraf has tried to blame the judiciary and media. To be sure, in some cases, judicial activism was obvious (though within the realm of constitutional law) and the media also made mistakes; but by no stretch of the imagination can these be linked to religious extremism or support for militancy.

It is unlikely that Musharraf’s latest gambit will succeed, as his popular support is at its lowest ebb. Pakistan’s armed forces — repeated targets of suicide bombers — have become demoralized. It is difficult to imagine them standing with Musharraf should civil conflict erupt. Nor can a weak, embattled and disoriented Musharraf be expected to fight Islamic militancy effectively or bring political stability to Pakistan.

Opposition political parties are drawing closer together and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, despite progress in her power-sharing negotiations with Musharraf, has strongly condemned his actions. Human rights bodies, media associations and lawyers’ organizations are expected to defy the emergency, which will pit them against the security forces.

Terrorists may also benefit by attacking a preoccupied army and political forces aligned with Musharraf. In the event of sustained protests and potential violence, top military commanders may decide to send Musharraf home — a decision that would not be unprecedented in Pakistan’s chronically turbulent history. Article

#3:

1) It is from a government mouthpiece outlet.

2) In light of events on the ground, it is couching obvious evidence in pure fiction. It is 100% crapola.

3) It is amazing that anyone could hear him, what with all those pigs and donkeys that must have been flying by.

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said Monday that the government is not disposed to put curbs on media in the country.

[snip]

…The imposition of any censorship on media is not under consideration…. Article

#4:

Condemning the proclamation of emergency in Pakistan, Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative has sought the suspension of the Islamic Republic from the Councils of Commonwealth for violating democratic principles.

“CHRI calls on the Commonwealth to immediately condemn these actions and suspend Pakistan from the Councils of the Commonwealth, while the Commonwealth continues to engage with and support civil society working towards an early return to democracy,” the NGO said in a statement.

It said: “The Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative strongly condemns the proclamation of the state of emergency in Pakistan by chief of army staff General Pervez Musharraf.

[snip]

“These actions run entirely contrary to the fundamental democratic principles of the Commonwealth. As a member, Pakistan is bound to comply with such principles,” it said. Article

#5:

Considering the signals and rumors that have swirled for months, including a particularly intense day in August, it would seem that both the Pakistani government and the political opposition have had time to anticipate and prepare for the emergency-rule decree issued on Saturday by Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the president of the country.

On the government’s side, that has meant tightening its grip over many aspects of Pakistani society, including one emerging tool for opposition groups the world over: the Internet.

[snip]

This past weekend, Pakistanis found that they had been blocked from accessing many non-official news and opposition sites, but one major Pakistani news site has found a way around the ban, even after authorities reportedly ransacked its offices in Islamabad.

Geo TV, which broadcasts from Dubai, has created a live audio stream of their Urdu-language channel that many Pakistani blogs and Western news sources are using to keep track of the situation throughout Pakistan. It can be heard on satellite radio and through broadband Internet connections.

Another leading blogger in Pakistani had a backup plan as well.… Article

Related: a mediacentric overview.

…in a largely rural country with one of the lowest literacy rates in the world, print media has never been mass media. Newspapers sell mostly in urban centers, while in rural areas radio, and to a lesser extent state-run television (broadcast over a terrestrial network), are the main sources of news and information. With the Internet still available only to 3 percent of Pakistanis, the influence of online journalism is negligible. Until Musharraf came to power, there was no private satellite television in Pakistan. But now cable lines, carrying satellite television signals, are slowly creeping into even the most remote villages. A young documentary producer at Dawn News, the country’s first twenty-four-hour, English-language news channel, explained the significance of this: “They don’t really have schools in interior Sindh,” he said, referring to the most impoverished state in the country. “But now they have cable lines. So guess what? Now we’re the ones educating all of them.” Article

#6:

Despite billions of dollars in U.S. military payments to Pakistan over the last six years, the paramilitary force leading the pursuit of Al Qaeda militants remains underfunded, poorly trained and overwhelmingly outgunned, U.S. military and intelligence officials said.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf cited the rising militant threat in declaring a state of emergency on Saturday and suspending the constitution.

But rather than use the more than $7 billion in U.S. military aid to bolster its counter-terrorism capabilities, Pakistan has spent the bulk of it on heavy arms, aircraft and equipment that U.S. officials say are far more suited for conventional warfare with India, its regional rival.

That has left fighters with the paramilitary force, known as the Frontier Corps, equipped often with little more than “sandals and bolt-action rifles,” said a senior Western military official in Islamabad, even as they face Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters equipped with assault rifles and grenade launchers.

The arms imbalance has contributed to Al Qaeda’s ability to regroup in the border region, and reflects the competing priorities that were evident even before this weekend between two countries that are self-described allies in the “war on terrorism” but have sharply divergent national security interests.

[snip]

Plans to build up the Frontier Corps are not universally supported by U.S. military officials. Loyalties within the corps are thought by many observers to be divided. Members are recruited mainly from Pashtun tribes with long-standing mistrust of outsiders. Most reject militant ideology, and have suffered hundreds of casualties in the fighting. But many also are devoutly religious and feel some degree of sympathy for the Islamists’ cause.

“There is a push-back among some that the Frontier Corps is not a reliable ally of the United States,” said Seth Jones, a military expert at Rand Corp. “The concern is that you give them additional training and equipment, and they could end up helping militants rather than taking action against them.”

Perhaps as a hedge against those concerns, the U.S. Special Operations Command has recently begun exploring efforts to pay off tribal militias in the region that are not affiliated with the Pakistani government, and arm them to root out Al Qaeda and Taliban militants, a source familiar with the discussions said.

“You can’t buy them, but you can rent them,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions. “There is a very serious effort to look at this.”

The CIA also operates in the area, and has doubled the number of case officers based in Pakistan in recent years, former agency officials say.

[snip]

Reluctant to offend a crucial ally, the United States has placed few conditions on the military aid, part of a larger package of U.S. aid and payments totaling more than $10 billion. As a result, Pakistan used much of it to acquire big-ticket weapons systems and other items to shore up its conventional defense capabilities, U.S. officials said.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which oversees U.S. weapons transfers, said that shipments to Pakistan since the Sept. 11 attacks had included some equipment that could be useful in pursuing militants in the tribal areas, including 4,000 radios and 12 refurbished attack helicopters. But even those items went to the regular army, the agency said, and are unlikely to be shared with the Frontier Corps, which falls under a separate branch of the Pakistani government.

The majority of Pakistan’s purchases have been of items that would be difficult to deploy in counterinsurgency fights, including harpoon missiles designed to sink warships, F-16 fighter jets, maritime surveillance aircraft and refurbished howitzers that have to be towed into position.

“It’s hard to make arguments that the bulk of what is being provided by the U.S. is very effective for counter-terrorism operations,” said Alan Kronstadt, a specialist in South Asian affairs at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service. “A lot of the military assistance has been much more useful for a potential war with India.” Article

Quasi-related:

Other commentators said that after investing so much in the general, who was coerced into partnership in the war on terror in 2001, Washington had effectively tied its own hands.

‘As far as America is concerned, he is playing his cards very well - America is more or less hostage to Musharraf because he has made them believe that the war on terrorism cannot be fought without him,’ retired general and political analyst Talat Masood said. Article

#7:

Pakistan has pulled tens of thousands of troops from its border with India in a bid to quell rising violence by pro-Taliban militants in the northwest, officials said here on Wednesday.

A top Indian defence ministry official said Pakistan’s military strength along the frontier had hit an “all-time low” during the summer as soldiers were poured into North West Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan.

“Our estimates are based on tested intelligence inputs from within Pakistan and feedbacks from our watch on their frontier assets,” added an official from India’s director-general of military intelligence. Article

#8 — demonstrating the width of the spectrum of antagonism generated by and directed towards the woebegone G. Walker administration.

First, from a column by Pat Buchanan:

The crisis in Pakistan brings home the reality the Bushites have ignored in their ideological crusades. For in the Pakistan crucible we see starkly who our real enemies are, whence the true dangers come and where our vital interests lie.

Musharraf is – as were Franco, Pinochet and the Shah in the Cold War – a flawed friend and an enemy of our enemy. If he falls, any democratic successor, like Benazir Bhutto, would not likely long survive al-Qaida and the suicide bombers who already tried to kill her.

What is happening in Pakistan exposes, too, the limits of U.S. power and the failure of President Bush – because of the democratist ideology to which he converted after 9-11 – to see clearly the real dangers to his country. Our enemy was always al-Qaida. It was never Iraq. And it is not Iran, at whom the GOP candidates are all braying their bellicosity.

After 9-11, those who viewed the horror and asked, “Why do they hate us?” were hooted down as unpatriotic. We were told Muslim militants hate us because we are free, democratic and good, and they are evil.

American can no longer afford to indulge this ideological claptrap. We are hated not because of who we are, but because of what we do. Nowhere is that more true than in Pakistan. Article

Second, from a different conservative voice:

…. Musharraf just showed his benefactor from across the sea that on this matter of democracy, he is indeed two-faced. After years of assuring President Bush that they share a zeal for promoting democracy, Musharraf has discovered that the problem with democracy is that you cannot always dictate its outcome. Especially if you do not have a Supreme Court in your pocket.

[snip]

This week, Bush called on Pakistan’s general to act presidential and prove his love of democracy by restoring it so the fight against terrorism can continue. Musharraf’s counter was this is how he is fighting terrorism. In a sense it is true — Musharraf’s terror is that he’ll be tossed out by the people. That’s why he has made one bow to democracy: He let word seep that upcoming January elections will be held after all. Will there be news media then? Or a Supreme Court? And, if so, whose court will it be — Musharraf’s or the people’s?

Musharraf has now joined an ironfisted panoply of America’s Dictator-Allies: In our region there were Somoza, Trujillo, Batista; in Musharraf’s the list famously includes the shah of Iran and Saddam Hussein. Really. Recall that cozy 1983 Baghdad photo op of Saddam shaking hands with President Ronald Reagan’s grinning envoy, Donald Rumsfeld (a fellow we’ve hardly heard from since)? To understand just how desperate the situation is now for America and the world, here’s a one-question quiz: Name the only country that is a sanctuary for bin Laden and al Qaeda, Taliban leaders, thousands of Islamic radicals bent on jihad, and 30 to 50 nuclear warheads.

Yes, Pakistan. And only the last of the list is considered under secure control — and even that is a matter of great conjecture. After all, Pakistan’s military has officers who are secular hard-liners and officers who are militant Islamist hard-liners.

Bush and Vice President Cheney don’t know what, if anything, they can do about what is happening in Pakistan. But they do know that as bad as things are in Pakistan today, things may well get worse before they get better (if they ever do). Article

Summaries here and here. Also here and here.

#1 — overview du jour:

The declaration of emergency rule in Pakistan has not resolved the country’s deep political and constitutional crisis. It may not even long delay the inevitable climax.

There are now two choices to be made. In the first, Pakistanis must decide whether to accept military rule or instead take to the streets to demand a return to the constitution. In the second, Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s key outside supporter, the United States, must decide whether his usefulness as an ally in President Bush’s global war on terror still outweighs the deepening embarrassment of his rule.

[snip]

In the words of Sunday’s editorial in Dawn, Pakistan’s leading newspaper: “All the gains over the years have gone down the drain. All this talk about the forward thrust towards democracy, about the impending ‘third phase’ of the political process and the lip service to the sanctity of judiciary turned out to be one great deception. The people have been cheated. In a nutshell, one-man rule has been reinforced, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel — a tunnel that is dark and winding with an end that is perhaps blocked.” Article

#2:

The U.S. Defense Department announced it has postponed bilateral defense consultative meetings with Pakistan after emergency rule was declared in the country.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, while on a trip in Asia, announced that a planned delegation to Islamabad led by U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Eric Edelman scheduled for Nov. 6-7 has been postponed.…

[snip]

Pentagon officials say the meetings were postponed but that they have not been canceled. Article

#3 — chaos directed against the educated and the middle class.

Pakistani police used tear gas and batons to crush protests by lawyers against President Pervez Musharraf on Monday, despite a torrent of worldwide outrage at the imposition of a state of emergency.

[snip]

Dozens of lawyers were wounded and hundreds more arrested as protests erupted outside courtrooms in a number of cities on Monday, the first major show of public dissent since a clampdown across Pakistan on Saturday.

Officials said 1,500 people had been arrested across Pakistan since the weekend. “Police have detained potential troublemakers, law-breakers and those who defied a ban on rallies,” interior ministry spokesman Javed Cheema said.

The biggest protest was in Lahore, where lawyers with bleeding head wounds were bundled into vans after police fired tear gas at around 1,000 protesters outside the high court, an AFP correspondent witnessed.

In Karachi, police and paramilitary soldiers sealed off the high court and charged at lawyers who were outside the building, detaining another 100, witnesses said.

Clashes were also reported in Rawalpindi, Multan and Peshawar.

[snip]

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, whose country was the former colonial master on the Indian subcontinent, urged Musharraf to clarify his plans after what Miliband called the “setbacks” of the last two days. Article

#3:

Deposed Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who was the prime victim of Saturday’s provisional constitutional order (PCO), is confident that he would stage a comeback and has reiterated that the present set-up is illegal and all the superior judiciary’s latest appointments have no validity.

Talking to The News on telephone here on Sunday night, Justice Iftikhar said that the seven-member bench of the apex court headed by him, which had stayed the PCO and had also restrained the judges of the superior judiciary from taking oath under the PCO, had left the present set-up completely illegal.

He said that the judges appointed in all the provincial high courts and the Supreme Court on Saturday and Sunday had no legal backing. “Everything that is happening today is illegal, unconstitutional and against the orders of the Supreme Court,” Justice Iftikhar said, adding that he was sure that the pre-November 3 situation would revive. Article

A bit more:

Chief Justce Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, who the government says stands deposed since the proclamation of emergency, has said that he has been virtually arrested. In a statement, Justice Chaudhry said that an army major came to his house on Monday morning and locked the doors of his residence and took away the keys. Along with Justice Iftikhar several senior judges of the apex court who have not been invited to take oath under Provisional Constitutional Order remain confined to their residences at Judges Enclave. According to former Registrar Dr Faqir Hussain some judges and their children need immediate medical assisstance which is not provied to them. Even their families are not allowed to go out of the house. Dr Faqir Hussain said he has spoken to the Chief Justice who has told him that his eleven year old son needs immediate medical help but is not provided. Dozens of Supreme Court and High Courts judges who had refused to take oath, have been put under virtual house arrest in an attempt to prevent them from going to their respective courts as a new set of judges were in the process of taking charge over there. In Karachi the Chief Justice of Sindh High Court Sabihuddin Ahmed told Dawnnews that he has not been allowed to leave his house by security forces. He further said that he has been informed by his friends that his son has been arrested. In Lahore pitched battles between lawyers and security forces continue at Lahore High Court. In Islamabad all roads leading to the Supreme Court building on Constitution Avenue and Judges Enclave at F-5 remained cardoned off by security forces. Newsmen were prevented from entering Supreme Court and not allowed to come near the Judges Enclave. Source

#4 — analysis du jour:

Pakistan, not Iraq and not Afghanistan, was the key battleground of the war on terror on 9/11 and it has never ceased to hold that position. Yet the U.S. Government never really gave Pakistan the attention it needed. If you had to struggle for one word to describe the official U.S. engagement with Pakistan, no doubt it would be “ignorant.” As in: fundamentally uniformed. As Pakistan becomes a greater and greater risk, there is no point in which U.S. policy towards the world’s only Islamic nuclear power, and the center of a global nuclear proliferation problem, has been so poorly informed. Indeed, the Pakistan relationship continues to be described by key foreign policy strategists in terms of medieval feudalism. General Musharraf is seen as a “friend,” and the continuance of a personal relationship with Musharraf is seen as the substance of the relationship.

As I outlined earlier, however, Condoleezza Rice pushed a new policy for the U.S. on Pakistan—it focused on working to create a government with a broader and potentially more stable basis. Condi Rice’s concept, which actually seems to have first come out of Whitehall, was to arrange a shotgun wedding between Musharraf and Bhutto. And Bhutto, sensing she had the upper hand with Pakistan’s key Atlantic allies, drove a very hard bargain. Whatever defects one sees in Bhutto and her Pakistan People’s Party, and they are severe, this plan offered a lifejacket to a floundering Pakistani state. And for the first time in recent memory, American policy was focused on Pakistan, and not the persona of the current dictator in charge.

So what went wrong? In my view, Musharraf sensed a fault line in the U.S. between Condoleeza Rice, the author of the arrangement with Bhutto which he found so unappetizing, and his “friend” Dick Cheney. Musharraf gambled that in the end, Cheney and not Rice would be the advisor to whom Bush would turn. And Musharraf was spot on. Article

#5:

Washington and Islamabad will keep up joint military operations along the border with Afghanistan despite the turmoil rocking Pakistan, US defense officials said Monday.

“As far as I know, with respect to our borders operations coordination, our military operations, that continues. That said, I wouldn’t want to speculate for the future,” said Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman.

[snip]

Whitman did not specify which aid programs were under review.

Funding for Pakistan’s operations under operation Enduring Freedom represent “about 80 million dollars a month,” he said. “So far 5.3 billions have been repaid to Pakistan” since the beginning of the operation.

The Pakistani military is also due to receive some 300 million dollars for the 2008 fiscal year, as well as about two million dollars designated for military training. Article

#6:

The Netherlands has suspended aid to Pakistan after military leader President Pervez Musharraf imposed emergency rule, Dutch Development Aid Minister Bert Koenders said yesterday.

[snip]

The Netherlands had budgeted some 15m euros ($21.7m) in aid to Pakistan for 2007 and some 12m euros has already been spent.

The remainder is now suspended, Koenders’ spokesman Franceso Mascini said.

For next year, the Netherlands had planned to give some 40m euros in aid to Pakistan mostly for education. That is now under review. Article

#7 — Among the pack running for the White House in ‘08, a tapdance of the timorous.

There is (of course) a lot being reported. Many of the articles include duplicative data, so rather than comment on every item ye old scribe is attempting here to document the bulk of them as snippets highlighting information which is singular, unique or otherwise glossed over in related linked articles.

Summary here and here.

“No judgment, decree, writ, order or process whatsoever shall be made or issued by any court or tribunal against the president or the prime minister or any authority designated by the president…” Source

#1:

Speaking in Islamabad, Sibghatullh Kadri, a UK-based QC, said: “[Justice Chaudhry’s] last message was a plea for support from the international community.

“This is the first time in history that there has been a coup d’état against the Supreme Court.

“It has never been heard of before, not even in banana republics.” Article

#2:

Despite new curbs, Pakistan’s print media, especially liberal English newspapers remained defiant.

The broadsheets laid into the military ruler after he purged the Supreme Court and imposed sweeping reporting curbs that ban any coverage “that defames, and brings into ridicule or disrepute the head of state” on pain of up to three years’ jail.

“Hopes that saner counsel might succeed in forestalling the extra-constitutional actions that had been hinted at … were obviously groundless,” leading newspaper Dawn said in an editorial.

“One wonders about the nature and size of the risk taken by volunteering for a pariah’s role in the comity (sic) of nations,” it added. “Wisdom demands the courage to withdraw an action that will embarrass the whole country for ages.”

“Already, the president enjoys all the powers that a ruler could possibly hope to amass. He is Chief of the Army Staff, he is president and he is supreme commander of the armed forces. What more powers does he want?” the Dawn asked.

Private television channels were blacked out on Saturday and yesterday, leaving only state television on air showing re-runs of Musharraf’s late night address to the nation and advertisements promoting the government.

[snip]

“Nov.3 will go down as another dark day in Pakistan’s political and constitutional history,” said The News. “This is one of General Musharraf’s greatest errors of judgment and a sorry indication that nothing has been learnt from the mistakes of the past.”

“Such acts are indefensible at any time, more so in this day and age.”

[snip]

The Nation newspaper said Musharraf had “sent the country into a tailspin just to save his job as president by a process which the apex court was widely believed to declare ultra vires,” in apparent reference to the court challenges to Musharraf’s re-election on November 6.

The Daily Times went further.

“We have a state of martial law, whatever the government may say and however long it may last,” it said. Article

#3:

Police on Sunday surrounded a compound where Chaudhry and other judges live.

Musharraf had pledged to step down as army chief by November 15 if he won the election and the court upheld it, but that now appears unlikely. Article

#4:

Pakistani police arrested hundreds of political activists Sunday during the second day of martial law declared by President Pervez Musharraf.

Police raided the homes of opposition party leaders and activists and confiscated the equipment of journalists covering the raids, The Washington Post reported. Article

#5:

Musharraf’s state of emergency declared Saturday, which amounted to a “second coup” according to opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, came despite weeks of US pressure including personal interventions from Rice.

[snip]

…Pakistan’s government warned it could delay key elections that were due in January for a year, as police rounded up hundreds of opponents and held the country’s sacked chief justice under house arrest.

Senator Joseph Biden, a long-shot Democratic hopeful in the 2008 White House race, said the Bush administration had only itself to blame.

“We have a huge stake, a huge stake, in seeing to it that the moderate majority in Pakistan have a political outlet,” Biden, the chairman of the Senate’s foreign relations committee, said on CBS television.

“This administration doesn’t have a policy. It has a Musharraf policy, but it doesn’t have a policy relative to Pakistan and how it has affected everything else in the region,” he said.

Senior Republican Senator Arlen Specter said “it’s hard to find a worse scenario than there is now” in Pakistan, accusing Musharraf of being too enfeebled to be a steadfast US ally in the war on terror.

“I wouldn’t support Pakistan with US aid here,” he told CNN. “He’s doing everything which is against democracy. Seizing the Supreme Court is just outlandish. What he’s done is declared himself the dictator.”

In any case, analysts say, Washington has been short-changed by its support to Musharraf given that bin Laden remains at large and Al-Qaeda appears to be resurgent.

“For the US, it comes down to the 160 million people of Pakistan versus Musharraf,” Syed Hasnat, a Pakistani scholar at Washington’s Middle East Institute, told AFP.

“Dictatorship by itself generates extremist views in a society. And while Musharraf has presented himself as a savior for US interests, he’s been unable to deliver all these years,” he said. Article

#6 — backgrounder coupled with psycho-political perspective:

For an insight into why Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf wants to cling to power, his stated leadership models say it all – Napoleon Bonaparte and Richard Nixon.

[snip]

Musharraf’s critics charge that after failing to restore full democracy and presiding over eight years of military rule, he has fallen to the dictator’s disease of thinking himself indispensable.

“He suffers from a highly inflated image of himself,” said Talat Masood, a former general-turned-political analyst.

“All dictators eventually think that they are the saviour, that without them the state will collapse and that they are destined to play that role,” Masood said. Article

#7:

The benchmarks of the day were: coup against judiciary; democracy derailed, general elections postponed, press gagged and civil society having a miscarriage.

But Pakistan is not a bed of roses for President Musharraf to stay put in power for an infinite period. Internal and external challenges have already started taking its toll on him, as Pakistan is geo-strategically poised for a showdown with militants and foreign troops in Afghanistan.

The doomsday writing is already on the wall for Musharraf as US Centcom Commander General Fallon, a day before the second coup, pressurised Islamabad to allow US and ISAF forces to operate inside Pakistan to flush out remnants of Taliban and Al-Qaida.

General Fallon exclusively cited the uprising in Swat and the mess in Pakistan’s tribal areas, and termed it as unacceptable for the US dictum of war on terror. It’s anybody’s guess as to how long a beleaguered Musharraf will continue to resist US demands.

On the other hand, Afghanistan is another unresolved regional riddle for Pakistan, and the iron-handed measures expected under the new regime are likely to further worsen the already strained relations. Islamabad is now likely to go ahead with its plans of fencing and mining the 2400-km porous border with Afghanistan, to the ire of Kabul, European Union and the United States as a last bid to save its skin from the influx of terrorist elements across the Durand Line.

Moreover, the unrest in the tribal areas, especially North and South Waziristan, is likely to see a new impetus as talks underway under various jirga compositions will lose their clout in an ever-changing political situation. Article

#8:

The lawyers in Pakistan have called for a countrywide strike on Monday in token protest against the imposition of emergency rule by President Pervez Musharraf. Article

#9:

‘It is absolutely ridiculous,’ Aaj TV’s director of news and current affairs Talat Hussian told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

Hussain, who also conducts a critical talk show with lawyers and politicians, said his channel had been singled out by Musharraf, who also alluded to Aaj TV in his overnight address.

In announcing his emergency decree, the president also declared a clampdown on the vibrant private media, which he said was ‘promoting negativism and uncertainty.’

[snip]

Though other channels can at least be viewed through satellite, Aaj TV has been blacked out by the authorities who hacked into the satellite uplink system, Hussain said.

‘We are in total darkness as we have no information of what’s going around us. The situation is frustratingly confusing,’ young information technology professional Noman Hyder said.

Bringing the curtain down on neutral coverage of such an unprecedented national issue will only worsen things, Hyder said.

Only a handful of people were able to get an unofficial account of the much-anticipated event by viewing the telecast using satellite receivers.

‘I can say for myself that I have the knowledge of underlying objectives of Musharraf’s move. But what about a common man who is only listening to the propaganda against the judiciary,’ said Abdul Majeed, a businessman with a satellite receiver at his home.

State television showed a few public interviews in which people called the state of emergency necessary to help steer the country out of the crisis caused by Islamic militancy and troubled political affairs.

Government authorities on Saturday had also stopped the private media from using their mobile broadcast vans to prevent live coverage of the street scenes in which the police and paramilitary troops cordoned off important state buildings.

After initially suspending the transmission of local media, the authorities also directed cable networks to stop relaying foreign news channels such as BBC News and Al Jazeera.

News-hungry Pakistanis relied on web services to keep themselves abreast of the fast-changing scenario, but later that too proved ineffective due to heavy internet traffic. Article

#10:

Former chief of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Hamid Gul was arrested here on Sunday in continuing crackdown by the government in emergency-ruled Pakistan.

Gul was taken into custody by policemen who pushed him into a van and whisked him away, Geo TV [based outside of Pakistan — voxd] reported.

“It is not an emergency, it’s martial law. One man has put the country at stake to save his rule,” the outspoken former spy chief said before he was taken away by the police from a public gathering here.

[snip]

It was not immediately known why Gul had been arrested. The beleaguered military ruler has suspended key fundamental rights and given security agencies sweeping power to arrest or detain people without charges.

In the weeks before the imposition of emergency, Gul had been at the centre of a controversy after media reports suggested that he was one of the persons named by former premier Benazir Bhutto as posing a threat to her life. Article

#11:

[Prime Minister] Shaukat Aziz told reporters in a news conference that the government is still committed to holding elections, but he said the timing is now uncertain.

“When you have an emergency, the parliament could give itself more time - up to a year - and in terms of holding the next elections,” Mr. Aziz said. “However, at this point, no decision has been made and we are deliberating. When we decide what deliberations results in, we will certainly share it with you.”

Before Mr. Musharraf suspended the constitution, elections were scheduled to be held in early January.

That timetable, as well as pending legal challenges to General Musharraf’s unofficial re-election last month, has been thrown into disarray by the state of emergency.

Senior judges have been forced to sign an oath to uphold a new provisional constitution imposed by Mr. Musharraf. State television reports 17 have now done so. Other judges, including the Supreme Court Chief Justice, have refused to sign and have been placed under house arrest.

When asked if General Musharraf still plans to step down as army chief, the prime minister said officials are waiting to see how the courts rule on the legality of his re-election. Article

#12 — a number of items tied together by the topic of the judiciary.

A majority of the Supreme Court as well as the provincial high court judges either refused or were not invited to take oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) issued after the proclamation of the state of emergency here on Saturday.

However, it was not clear whether the judges who were not invited on Saturday would be asked to take a fresh oath on Sunday or Monday.

“The development suggests that the judicial activism spearheaded by now removed Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry also had an effect on the judges,” a legal expert commented while talking to Dawn.

In the Supreme Court, only four judges out of 19 took oath under the PCO. Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar, who is the fourth in line in the seniority list, was sworn in as the new Chief Justice of Pakistan by President Pervez Musharraf. He was elevated as judge of the apex court in April 2000 when the then chief justice Saiduzzaman Siddiqui and six other judges who had refused to take oath under the PCO issued by Gen Musharraf at the time of the first coup.

Those who took oath under the fresh PCO are Justice Muhammad Nawaz Abbasi, Justice Faqir Muhammad Khokhar and Justice M Javed Buttar.

In the Sindh High Court, four judges out of 27 sitting judges took oath with Chief Justice Sabihuddin Ahmed declining to take oath.

However the most startling news came from Quetta where all the five existing judges of the Balochistan High Court took oath.

[snip]

In Peshawar, Chief Justice Tariq Pervez Khan and Justice Shah Jehan Khan refused to take oath and Justice Talaat Qayyum Qureshi, who is third in seniority, was sworn in as Chief Justice. Only five of the 13 judges took oath.…

[snip]

In Lahore, 13 of 31 judges took oath. Four other judges in the circuit benches are expected to take oath on Sunday or Monday. Article

Some more court info here.

Also (and includes, though single-sourced at this point, the public revelation of what the Supreme Court’s decision would have been):

General Pervez Musharraf has declared a state of emergency in the country in league with the beneficiaries of the National Reconciliation Ordinance, says former Supreme Court judge Wajihuddin Ahmad.

Unimpressed by Pakistan People’s Party chairperson Benazir Bhutto’s dash back to the country shortly after the imposition of emergency, Mr Ahmad said in an interview with Dawn that there was a strong PPP link in what had happened in the country on Saturday.

“I remember Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry telling me when he was suspended following the March 9 presidential reference that the original government plan was to instal Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar as chief justice. Justice Dogar had the dubious distinction of being acting chief election commissioner. He was elevated to the Sindh High Court by a PPP government.”

[snip]

Sources quoted Justice Javed Iqbal as saying on Saturday that the Supreme Court was all set to pronounce a ruling on the president’s qualification to be re-elected on Thursday, but the case dragged on because Aitzaz Ahsan, the counsel for Mr Ahmad prolonged his arguments unnecessarily.

[snip]

Mr Ahmad said that just as the government had found out that the eleven-member bench of the Supreme Court was planning to rule against the president, the PPP also feared that the apex court would strike down the controversial amnesty law.

“That is why I insist that Gen Musharraf has acted in league with the beneficiaries of the National Reconciliation Ordinance,” he said.

Mr Ahmad said he had a feeling that Gen Musharraf would get a prompt validation for his proclamation of emergency from the present assemblies. Article

Further court-related data:

According to the state-run Pakistan Television, six judges of the Supreme Court were administered oath Saturday night including the new Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar who is from Sindh. He was appointed a high court judge by Benazir Bhutto, when she was prime minister of the country.

The judges who opted not to take the oath under the PCO included Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry who was restored in August four months after Musharraf suspended him. Justice Rana Bhagwandas, the only Hindu judge to reach the second highest position in judiciary, also did not take the oath.

Bhagwandas headed the Supreme Court when Justice Chaudhry was suspended. Unconfirmed reports said that he was offered the position of chief justice under the PCO but refused and preferred to quit the judiciary. Article

Yet more:

Police and paramilitary troops, on Sunday, ringed the house of a Pakistani judge who had been hearing challenges to President Pervez Musharraf’s October 6 re-election.

Supreme Court judge Khalilur Rehman Ramday was inside his home in Lahore and security officials denied permission to visitors to enter.

“You cannot meet him,” a soldier from the paramilitary Rangers force said, without giving any reason. Article

#13:

Around 200 police with assault rifles and sticks stormed the Human Rights Commission’s office in the eastern city of Lahore, breaking up a meeting and arresting about 50 members, said Mehbood Ahmed Khan, legal officer for the activists.

“They dragged us out, including the women,” he said from the police station. “It’s inhuman, undemocratic and a violation of human rights to enter a room and arrest people gathering peacefully there.” Article

#14:

The emergency decree snuffs out the newly found authority of the court, which has been a thorn in the side of the regime since it defeated the attempt to sack Justice Chaudhry, who was joined under house arrest by many other senior figures, including former cricketer turned politician Imran Khan. Mr Khan accused General Musharraf of committing treason, before slipping away from the guards who had encircled his home.

“He was detained along with eight supporters at the house. The supporters are at home but he has slipped away,” a close relative said. “Police are still outside the house.”

[snip]

Senior diplomats in Islamabad reported dismay within sections of the army, with speculation centred on the recently-appointed vice-chief of staff Ashfaq Kiyani, who is believed to favour a return to democracy.

Lieutenant General Kiyani worked closely with Ms Bhutto when she was prime minister and they are said to have maintained good relations.

“Our information is that at the very least there are misgivings in some high-ranking quarters about what Musharraf has done. But whether this will translate into action against him from within the army remains to be seen,” a diplomat said.

“These are tense times. There has been no sign in the past eight years since Musharraf seized power of his support base within the army fracturing. But there are those within the army who are increasingly worried about the way they are being blamed for all the ills of the regime, and how this reflects on the army.” Article

#15: out of Washington, D.C., a tin ear (talk about being out of sync):

The White House on Saturday asked Gen Pervez Musharraf to quit the army office before he is sworn in as the president and hold parliamentary elections as scheduled. Article

Furthermore:

The [U.S.’] review would examine whether a portion of the current aid dollars could continue to flow despite U.S. legal restrictions that set conditions for governments to receive money.

That portion would probably cover only a small amount of the total aid, which now runs to about $150 million each month. However, the Pentagon said Musharraf’s move won’t affect the U.S.’s military relationship with Pakistan.

Rice added she had not spoken to Musharraf after he suspended the constitution, blacked out independent media outlets, replaced the chief justice of the Supreme Court and arrested hundreds of activists and opposition members.

On Sunday, Britain also weighed whether Musharraf’s actions would force the government to reconsider aid pledged to the South Asian nation. Article

Also:

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s “coup against his own government” puts his main backer the United States in a spot where even the best-case scenarios are messy if not dangerous.

[snip]

Pakistan this year is receiving about $700 million in U.S. economic and military assistance and in 2008 is expected to receive more than $800 million. The country has received about $10 billion in U.S. aid since 2001, with much of that in counter-terrorism assistance.

Retired U.S. diplomat Teresita Schaffer said Washington’s scope for action beyond tactical steps to show displeasure at Musharraf was narrow in a country that borders Afghanistan — another U.S. ally at war with resurgent Islamic militants.

“We don’t have the luxury of simply blowing off the whole country,” the South Asia expert at the Center For Strategic and International Studies think tank told Reuters.

“Strategically, we have to work with whoever is in charge of Pakistan,” she added.

U.S. legal strictures against giving military aid to countries after army coups could be finessed by deciding they don’t apply to a Pakistan with “the same guy in charge, albeit under very different circumstances,” Schaffer said.

[snip]

Pakistan’s army has been playing a “double game” in joining hands with the United States and taking aid yet not fighting the Taliban and other extremists with sustained vigor, said Brookings Institution analyst Stephen Cohen.

“In effect we’ve wasted several billions of dollars, becoming Musharraf’s ATM machine, allowing him to build up a military establishment that was irrelevant to his and our real security threat, yet presiding over an intensification of anti-American feelings in Pakistan itself,” he wrote in a soon-to-be published essay for the Web site www.brook.edu.

“Musharraf’s recent coup against his own government — for that is what it was — does nothing to improve the Pakistan army’s performance in matters of vital concern to the United States,” wrote Cohen. Article

#16 — a more ominous perspective:

It is quite evident that the timing of Pervez Musharraf’s [Images] decision to impose emergency rule in Pakistan is linked to the impending judgment by the Supreme Court regarding the propriety of his re-election as president for another term. But that is only part of the story.

What emerges beyond doubt is that Musharraf’s move enjoys the support of the top brass of the Pakistan Army. Significantly, he signed the proclamation on emergency rule in his capacity as the Chief of Army Staff rather than as the President.

Musharraf spoke to British prime minister Gordon Brown on Thursday, hardly 48 hours prior to the proclamation of emergency rule. Britain was a prime mover of the Musharraf-Benazir Bhutto rapprochement.

Admiral William J Fallon, commander of the US Central Command, was on a visit to Pakistan, and he actually happened to be in the GHQ in Rawalpindi when Musharraf was giving the last touches to his proclamation on emergency rule. The political symbolism is self-evident.

Clearly, it stands to reason that Musharraf took care to consult Washington and Britain before announcing his move. Benazir Bhutto’s [Images] abrupt departure for Dubai against the advice by her party leaders also suggests that Musharraf took her into confidence.

The initial statements of “regret” by the Western capitals, especially Washington, indicate that their dealings with the Musharraf regime will continue.

The statement by the Pentagon spokesman is particularly important for the top brass of the Pakistani armed forces. The spokesman said the development “does not impact our military support for Pakistan”.

[snip]

The worsening situation in Afghanistan leaves the US with hardly much choice in the matter other than working with the regime that Musharraf heads. The developments in the western province of Farah (bordering Iran) and the southern province of Kandahar are particularly serious.

Musharraf has succeeded in underscoring in the Western capitals that he is the anchor sheet of “stability” in Pakistan.

No matter the actual ground reality, he has succeeded in projecting a cascading threat from the militants, and that he only could effectively counter them.

The Western capitals are quite aware of the extreme fluidity of the situation but are literally forced to suspend their disbelief in Musharraf’s claim as the guardian of Pakistan’s stability.

In the short term, therefore, Musharraf doesn’t have to look over his shoulders.

He is estimating that what matters most is his apparent will to wage a strong military campaign against militants; his helping hand in finessing the “intra-Afghan dialogue” involving the Taliban; and his cooperation with the US in the event of Washington deciding on a military showdown with Iran in the coming months.

In sum, Musharraf assesses that he has a relatively free hand to instead press ahead with his political agenda within Pakistan.

This means first and foremost that he will hold both the offices of President and Chief of Army Staff at least until the elections early next year.

He will expect the new Supreme Court to endorse his re-election as President, which will enable him to be sworn in by the third week of November in time before the sitting legislative bodies run out their term.

[snip]

Musharraf will count on the ISI to manipulate a coalition of political forces that would steer its way successfully past the next parliamentary elections. The regime has also assessed that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan can be endlessly stalled in the new circumstances with a pliant judiciary.

All this means that Musharraf is planning for the long haul.

He has estimated that the prospects of an eruption of popular agitation under the leadership of the democratic opposition are almost nil in immediate terms. This is despite the fact that the reasons advanced by Musharraf for imposing emergency rule lack credibility in the public perceptions in Pakistan. Article

#17 — a differently angled editorial, though events already may well have entirely eclipsed the sentiment.

When Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf announced another state of emergency on Saturday, it was clear that he had lost control of the country. And, it was also quite clear he had lost control of himself. The general’s desire to stay on in power appears to have blinded him completely. Pakistan is now facing a new crisis brought about by Musharraf’s myopia. In his television address on Saturday he said Pakistan had been engulfed in political upheaval and that the country’s security forces had suffered from fighting pro-Taleban militants. Pakistan’s sovereignty was in danger, he claimed, and timely action must be taken. He said he would not allow his country to “commit suicide”, which, in fact, is what he was doing.

[snip]

Washington is extremely concerned that the longer Musharraf stays, the bigger a liability he will become. Military leaders loyal to him might already be splitting, as quite a few don’t agree with his actions. Continued fighting between the military and extremists in various parts of the country has further weakened the morale of the troops, who increasingly view Musharraf’s leadership with disdain. The US wants to see Pakistan as a democratic and secular country in South Asia that can serve as a bulwark against Islamic militancy in West Asia. But with the ongoing political crisis, it will be difficult for this to occur.

Musharraf must rethink the situation before it descends into anarchy. Nobody wants to see parts of Pakistan in the control of militant groups that have won the people’s support. Musharraf’s war on terror, backed by the US, has lost the support of locals, making him and his security forces unable to fight in an effective manner. The best way out for Pakistan is for the general to leave the scene. Article

#18:

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf denied rumours sweeping Pakistan on Monday that he had been placed under house arrest by subordinates unhappy with his decision to impose emergency rule.

[snip]

Media organisations received calls from cities all around Pakistan, including Karachi, where the stock market had fallen 4.7 percent on the political uncertainty. Article

Meanwhile, in the fractious hinterlands (see also the second link in the Pakistan summary, above):

Security forces bombed suspected locations of militants in the Banda area here on Saturday evening after a rocket attack on the non-operational Saidu Sharif airport.

Sources said militants positioned near the airport had fired rockets on a paramilitary base camp, killing a Frontier Corps man. Another soldier injured in the attack died in hospital.

Meanwhile, efforts continued for a ceasefire in the area.

A jirga was held at the Swat Press Club to work out a temporary truce.

[snip]

A flag was hoisted over one building after it was abandoned by officers in the scenic Swat valley, said Sirajuddin, speaking on behalf of the militants.

Hours later, militants took control of another police post 10 kilometers to the north, said Mian Rasool Shah, a Taliban commander, adding that they locked the doors to prevent the looting of weapons after persuading 60 officers to leave. Article

Pakistan summary here and here. Also, here, which includes some concise background.

Now, therefore, in pursuance of the deliberations and decisions of the said meetings, I General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of the Army Staff, proclaim Emergency throughout Pakistan.

I hereby order and proclaim that the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan shall remain in abeyance.

This Proclamation shall come into force at once.

Source: an ancillary file included here.

#1:

Rumours had been rife for days. Last night, with armed police deployed across Islamabad once again, it was all too clear that the worst had actually happened.

All week newspaper and independent television channels had been speculating that General Musharraf – who seized power in a military coup in 1999 – was poised to invoke emergency powers to save his presidency. And at the Supreme Court complex in Islamabad troops blocked off roads and eventually detained the Chief Justice.

Last night, with the exception of state-controlled PTV, those TV channels that had been speculating so furiously all week were silent. As the news filtered through market places, shoppers streamed out, many on their mobile phones, seeking confirmation. Many mobiles went dead within the hour.

Across Islamabad, police were seen racing around in blue pick-up trucks, with lights flashing and half a dozen officers in the back, cradling ageing weapons.

[snip]

“He is doing it because he fears the Supreme Court’s ruling,” said Asif Sheikh, a taxi driver, in words echoed by many last night.

Lawyers in touch with judges at the Supreme Court reported that Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, whom General Musharraf had sacked in March, and seven accompanying judges had declared that the state of emergency was “illegal” and “unconstitutional”. Soon, it was reported that Mr Chaudhry and fellow judges had all been sacked and police units were stationed outside the court.

On the orders of the Islamabad Inspector General, the police also moved against Aitzaz Ahsan, a leading lawyer who had been arguing against General Musharraf’s right to be elected while in uniform, in the Supreme Court. Mr Ahsan had gathered journalists at his home for a press conference, during which he was told that a warrant had been issued for his arrest.

Unfazed, he said he had been “to jail many times” and that even if he was taken away “the lawyers’ movement would not stop their struggle”. Moments after he finished taking questions, police car lights were flashing outside. No one was allowed to leave. In the full glare of TV cameras, his supporters burst into a chorus of “Go Musharraf, Go!” as Mr Ahsan was driven away to the police station, raising a victory sign in defiance. Article

#2 — as if Musharraf’s uniform will be shucked now:

On the grimy streets of this garrison city, home to Musharraf’s military headquarters, anger at the president was palpable. Diners in curry houses and hotels shook their heads, struggling to comprehend his decision. Musharraf told the country he had no choice but to impose emergency laws _ just days before the Supreme Court was expected to rule on his future as president. He immediately dismissed the Supreme Court justices, swearing in new appointees.

“He did not have to do this,” said 40-year-old Zulfikar Ali, director of a run-down hotel near the city’s busy bus station. Wagging his finger at a small television that he and his friends had crowded around to watch Musharraf address the nation, Ali cried, “He’s a donkey! The Supreme Court was doing good things for the people, and this is what he did.”

[snip]

In Islamabad, armed police and paramilitary troops poured into the streets within minutes of the general’s decision, leaving several lawmakers and their families stranded at the entrance of their barricaded lodgings.

Khalid Ranja, a former minister and member of Musharraf’s ruling party, pleaded with paramilitary rangers to get into his apartment, but to no avail.

Nonetheless, Ranja said he backed Musharraf. “It was needed because of the blasts everywhere. No one was feeling safe,” he said outside the barbed wire blockade.

Many of Pakistan’s private news channels were among the first to be hit by the emergency laws. Their signals were cut, leaving just state-run Pakistan Television to deliver news of the emergency.

Geo TV, which continued to broadcast to overseas viewers from its hub in Dubai, changed its masthead from a vibrant blue and yellow to black and gray as a gesture of mourning. Article

#3 — slamming down the barred gates of repression (emphasis added).

President General Pervez Musharraf Saturday promulgated two Ordinances amending laws related to the print and the electronic media, prohibiting them to publish or broadcast statements that abet terrorist activities or terrorism. The ordinances to amend the Press, Newspapers, News Agencies and Books Registration Ordinance 2002 and the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority Ordinance 2002 will be effective with immediate effect.

In the Ordinance dealing with press a new section 5A has been inserted which prohibits publication of certain material; photographs of suicide bombers, terrorists, bodies of victims, statements of militants and extremist and any other thing which promotes or abets terrorist activities or terrorism.

The section also prohibits projection of any thing that is based on sectarianism, ethnicism or racialism, that defames, and brings into ridicule or disrepute the Head of State, or members of the Armed Forces or executive, judicial or legislative organs of the State.

It also prohibits any material that is likely to jeopardize or be prejudicial to the ideology of Pakistan or the sovereignty, integrity or security of Pakistan, besides any material, that is likely to incite violence or hatred or create inter-faith disorder.

[snip]

The Ordinance dealing with the electronic media similarly prohibits broadcast video footage of suicide bombers, terrorists, victims, statements of militants or anything that abets terrorism.

It also directs the channels to ensure that no anchor, moderator or host propagates any opinion that is prejudicial to the ideology of Pakistan or integrity of Pakistan.

The amendment prohibits broadcast of any material that defames or brings into ridicule Head of State, members of armed forces, executive or legislative or judicial organs and any program on a matter this is sub-judice. A new insertion also prohibits foreign broadcasts.

The Authority or the Chairman under a new sub-section may seize broadcast or distribution equipment and seal the premises and in an emergency may direct closure for a period as it may determine.

It also prohibits live coverage of incidents of violence and directs installation of time-delay equipment to prevent any such violation. Article

#4:

Former Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto described the imposition of emergency rule by President Pervez Musharraf on Saturday as “mini-martial law” and vowed that her party would protest against it.

“This is a mini-martial law,” Bhutto said in a news conference in the southern city of Karachi a little over an hour after arriving back from Dubai, where she had been visiting her family. “We condemn this martial law. We will protest it.”

[snip]

In an interview with Sky News, Bhutto accused Musharraf of breaking promises he had made in negotiations with her for a transition to democracy and said she was “bitterly disappointed” with what he had done.

She said she planned to hold talks with the leaders of other political parties on a strategy to reverse Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution.

She urged the world to pressure Musharraf to reverse his decision so that free and fair elections could be held.

“We’d like the international community to tell General Musharraf: Reverse your order suspending the constitution, reverse your order with regard to the judiciary and accept the decision of the court,” she said.

Bhutto said she believed emergency rule was designed to delay elections, due in January. Article

#5 — Setting up the battle of the law versus the lash:

An eight-member panel of Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Saturday defied the order of President General Pervez Musharraf declaring the state of emergency, by declaring it annulled.

The bench was headed the top judge Iftkhar Chaudhry, who had been replaced hours earlier by another judge, Abdul Hamid Dogar, on the orders of Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz.

[snip]

Only an hour after the emergency was declared, the court panel ruled that oath-taking of any judge under the Presidential Constitutional Order, by which the emergency was proclaimed, would be utterly illegal. Article

More:

President General Pervez Musharraf Saturday appointed a news Chief Justice of Supreme Court after the former top judge refuse to abide by his order to declare a state of emergency and suspend the constitution of Pakistan.

‘Abdul Hamid Dogar has taken the oath as the new Chief Justice of the Supreme Court,’ said the state run Pakistan Television. The oath was administered by Musharraf himself.

The move was made amid fears that the top court under the leadership of Iftikhar Chaudhry would give a verdict against him on challenges to his victory in the controversial October 6 presidential vote.

[snip]

Saturday’s presidential order prohibits the top court from giving a judgement against him. But there was no mention in the notification of the cases against him in the court. Article

Related: on ‘new’ (read: rubber stamp) court: Article

Also related: on other oath-taking: 1 — 2 — 3 — 4

#6 — an excuse to the tantrum of terror, and the ultimate insult to foundational freedoms:

Pakistan’s President General Pervez Musharraf Saturday branded the country’s judiciary as a main obstacle in efforts against the terrorism, saying its rulings were the main reason for his declaration of emergency authoritarian rule.

‘The law enforcement agencies are demoralized because their officers are being sentenced by the court,’ he said in a speech on state-run PTV television. Article

More info:

‘The law enforcement agencies are demoralized because their officers are being sentenced by the court,’ he said in a speech on state-run PTV television.

‘The extremists are roaming around in the country freely. They have no fear from the law enforcement agencies because they cannot take decisions, owing to the uncertain circumstances,’ Musharraf said, claiming that the country was ‘on the verge of destabilization.’

The reference was apparently to a case in which the Supreme Court reprimanded Pakistani intelligence agencies for illegally holding hundreds of people suspected of involvement in terrorism.

Chaudhry had ordered several dozen of these prisoners to be produced before the court and released if they were not charged for any crime, enraging officials of the powerful intelligence agencies.

‘At least 60 such terrorists were released by the courts that has been blacklisted by the intelligence agencies and now they are at large and perhaps involved in some of the latest terrorist activities,’ the general said.

According to some sources, the government had put pressure on Chaudhry and other judges of the apex court to take a fresh oath under Saturday’s presidential order, but at least six refused.

‘Chaudhry has been put under house arrest after his refusal,’ a source told dpa.

[snip]

A source in the president’s office told dpa earlier that the decision to declare a state of emergency was ‘taken in a high level meeting, which was attended by several cabinet ministers, top leadership of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League party and legal experts.’

[snip]

Musharraf assured the Western powers in English that his ’struggle’ for restoration of democracy through a peaceful transition would continue.

‘Please do not demand and expect your level of civil rights, human rights, civil liberties, which you learned over the centuries. We are also trying to learn, and we are also doing very well. Please give us time,’ he said, without saying much about his conflict with the Supreme Court. Article

#7:

…just as much as the political imbroglio, it was the growing loss of morale in Pakistan’s armed forces which was a source of concern.

Pakistan’s army, deployed throughout the country’s tribal regions to combat pro-Taleban militants, was losing ground to them.

The last straw, in this regard, came when at least 300 army troops surrendered to militants in South Waziristan.

Since then, the government and its security troops have all but lost control to the militants in the tribal areas.

The emboldened militants have subsequently moved forward into settled regions - Pakistani territory where normal law applies.

The most recent of these is the growing insurgency in the Swat valley.

Such political and security situations are not unprecedented in Pakistan’s history.

But what has changed is the public’s access to information about events, due to extensive and critical media coverage.

Reporting of the militants’ challenge to the state, starting with the siege at Islamabad’s Red Mosque in July, has been quite comprehensive.

Added to the live reporting on the political storm surrounding the chief justice, this has been critical in shaping opinion.

These factors have not gone unnoticed by General Musharraf, who expounded on them during his speech after imposing emergency.

While claiming that Pakistan stood on the brink of catastrophe, he was quick to point the finger of blame.

For him, the two main culprits, who are now likely to face the brunt of the emergency, were the judiciary and the media. Article

#8 — reaction of impotence:

[Condoleezza] Rice said she had spoken multiple times recently to Pakistan’s leaders as had other Bush administration officials and expressed strong U.S. reservations about declaring emergency rule. She said she had not spoken to Musharraf since he made the announcement on Saturday.

“I am not going to provide the details of those discussions except to say we made very clear that extra-constitutional means would not be supported by the United States,” said Rice. Article

What is “very clear” are actions or lack thereof.

The United States has no plans to suspend military aid to Pakistan in response to a declaration of emergency by President Pervez Musharraf, a Pentagon spokesman said Saturday.

“At this point, the declaration does not impact on our military support for Pakistan’s efforts in the war on terror,” said Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, adding that he had no sense that a review of US military aid to Pakistan is imminent.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who was en route to China, had no immediate plans to contact his counterpart in Pakistan about the move announced by Musharraf, Morrell told reporters traveling with Gates. Article

Nearly susbumed by the crush of today’s events:

Pakistan is considering enforcement of Islamic laws in Pakistan’s north-western valley of Swat to meet the demands of pro-Taleban militants who had seized around 100 security personnel after nine days’ fierce fighting that left more than 200 people dead, media reports said on Saturday.

“The government is considering the implementation of Sharia law in the view of the demands of the local people,” said Ali Muhammad Jan Aurakzai, Governor of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), where Swat district lies.

“We are trying to resolve the issue through negotiations but if required force will also be used,” the DawnNews channel cited him as saying.

The statement came as the Islamic militants were claiming Saturday that they had captured 100 more security personnel, a day after they released 48 captives in Swat, some 160 kilometres from the NWFP capital Peshawar. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here and here.

Pot. Kettle. Black.

Afghanistan said Friday it had summoned Iran’s representative here to complain about reports of Afghan minors being sentenced to death for drug smuggling and the forced expulsion of refugees.

Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Kabir Farahi also raised concerns at the meeting on Thursday about claims that Afghan nationals were beaten up in Tehran, the foreign ministry said in a statement.

It is not unusual in Iran for drug smugglers of Afghan origin to be executed in border provinces. Article

Chaos in veritas.

Pakistani villagers said a missile strike hit houses near a madrasa founded by an old friend of Osama bin Laden’s on Friday, killing at least five people.

They told Reuters a drone aircraft carried out the attack. The United States has carried out such operations in the past using drones, which Pakistan does not possess in its armory. The Pentagon issued a swift denial the US military had conducted a strike, though spokesman Bryan Whitman said he could not speak for US intelligence agencies that also operate the pilotless aircraft.

A Pakistani military spokesman said he had heard there had been an explosion in a house but there had been no action by Pakistani forces. The sprawling religious school or madrasa near Miranshah, the main town in the Waziristan tribal region, was founded by veteran mujahideen commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, whose ties to bin Laden go back to the 1980s jihad against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

“A drone was flying very low and fired the missile. It destroyed three houses,” a Dandi Darpakheil village resident told Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivities over US operations in Pakistani territory.

Several other villagers corroborated his account.… Article

Following up on the execrable, retrogressive proposals mentioned here yeaterday:

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has strongly denounced the proposed move to amend the Army Act to provide for additional grounds for court martial of civilian offenders or suspects.

Any suggestion for an increase in the intelligence agencies’ powers is like a slap in the nation’s face, HRCP chairperson Asma Jahangir said in a statement.

The HRCP said that the havoc the intelligence agencies have wrought has given rise to a unanimous public demand for an end to their illegal activities and a drastic curtailment of whatever legal functions they have been assigned.

The legalisation of the intelligence agencies’ practice of picking up and detaining citizens will gravely undermine the rule of the law, the commission said, adding that it will increase and justify the cases of disappearance of which the Supreme Court has been seized of nearly a year.

Terming the reported move to amend the Army Act to provide for additional grounds for court martial of civilian offenders or suspects, as even more sinister, it said, this will amount to creation of summary military courts against which the Supreme Court had issued a firm bar some years ago.

The statement said the court martial proceedings against civilians can only be termed state terrorism by abuse of law, the Dawn reported. Article

Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

Pakistan’s Supreme Court today said it is likely to give its verdict on petitions challenging President Pervez Musharraf’s re-election in uniform by November 6 even as an application was filed asking the apex court to direct the military ruler not to take any unconstitutional step.

Attorney General Malik Qayyum, who is appearing on behalf of Musharraf, assured the court that there was no move to impose martial law in the country.

Though the 11-member bench had yesterday indicated that it was unlikely to decide the matter before November 14 as one of the judges would be away to attend his daughter’s marriage, it said today that it would sit even on Saturday and Sunday, if necessary, so that it could give a ruling quickly in view of the importance of the case. Article

Afghanistan summaries here and here and here. Also this.

Pakistan summary here and here.

So how’s that thrice handed-off training going?

In a mud-walled village on the outskirts of the provincial capital of Qalat, police checkpoint commander Abdul Rasool complains he is tired of his country’s six-year war and longs for peace.

Despite Rasool’s appeal, he represents what the U.S. military thinks is wrong with Afghanistan’s police, a force wracked by corruption that was long neglected as the army took front and centre in securing the nation’s borders and fighting the insurgency.

Standing nearby, U.S. army Capt. Dave Perry points out that trucks are being “destroyed” close to the checkpoint the Afghan commander supervises. Perry mentors the Afghan police and is the project officer for a checkpoint consolidation plan which aims to clean up police crime in southern Afghanistan’s Zabul province.

Rasool, a slight, sun-weathered man appearing older than his 27 years, seems oblivious to the veiled accusation. “Maybe the situation is getting bad because we have a lot of checkpoints now, so more Taliban come,” he responded.

[snip]

“What we can’t have here is 8,000 ticked off policemen who are going to be joining the insurgency,” Maj. Gen. Robert Cone, commanding general of the U.S. Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan, told IPS in a Kabul interview. The command is responsible for training and equipping the Afghan security forces.

[snip]

Until the United States took control of police training a few months ago, Afghan officers were taught to deal only with traditional police issues like domestic violence or bank robberies. Now the strategy is to give the police “survival skills,” said Kornish.

While some may describe the new training as military in nature, American forces refer to it as reality training. “Until the security situation in this country improves radically, police here are not going to be the police on the block back home — because if they try to do that they’re going to die,” he warned. Article

Noted FYI:

Portugal will cut its military presence in Afghanistan by more than 90 percent from August 2008, Defense Minister Nuno Severiano Teixeria told parliament, according to Lusa news agency.

Portugal will reduce its contribution to NATO’s International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) from 162 soldiers to a single C-130 transport plane and 15 soldiers to train members of the Afghan army, the defence minister said during a parliamentary commission meeting. Article

Blurring the distinctions between providing info and material to news organizations and creating and managing news in toto.

When NATO put out a call for more equipment in southern Afghanistan, it was expecting guns and helicopters - not cameras and video-cataloguing gear.

But that’s what it got from Denmark: an offer of 1 million euros, or about C$1.4 million, to buy video equipment that will ultimately be used to deliver documented Taliban outrages to a television near you - or to the popular video website YouTube.

At the end of a two-day informal meeting of defence ministers in the Netherlands, NATO’s secretary general reiterated Thursday that the alliance needs to do a better job in public relations both in home countries and Afghanistan.

“What we can do is improve our public messaging,” Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told reporters.

“Part of that public messaging could be to show to the people - and they can draw their own conclusions - what our opponent, our enemy in Afghanistan, looks like; what they do.”

[snip]

Two weeks ago, de Hoop Scheffer made a pitch to declassify video surveillance footage shot by NATO forces throughout the Afghan conflict. Allied countries have a variety of electronic intelligence-gathering means at their disposal.

The Danes responded with an initiative to provide equipment to transfer and catalogue existing video taken by the various countries involved in fighting the insurgency war. There will also be cameras so that more video can be shot.

The alliance, for all its high-tech hardware and gizmos, does not have such a facility right now, said Canadian Col. Brett Boudreau, a spokesman for Gen. Ray Henault, head of NATO’s military council.

Faced with sagging support in countries like Canada and the Netherlands for the Afghan mission, NATO sees the videos as a way of shoring up public opinion.

But one man’s YouTube video could be another man’s propoganda. De Hoop Scheffer bristled at such a suggestion in questions from a Danish journalist. Article

Hmm.

Not even top name celebrities were able to save Olympus Security Group from being shut by police in Afghanistan this week.

The UK-based company affiliate, which works with show business clients, recently became the eighth private security company to be closed in three weeks as part of a crackdown on an industry that has hitherto operated with near impunity. Article

While he may publicly remove the uniform, plans seem afoot to cast it as a smothering shroud of ensconced and instituionalized repression (emphasis added).

The Pakistan government is promulgating an ordinance which will enable court martial trials of civilians under the Pakistan Army Act, Attorney General Malik Qayyum has confirmed.

“Some new offences would be added to the Army Act to cover civilians,” Qayyum said, confirming that the ordinance would come in the next few days.

According to Qayyum, the proposed amendment to the Army Act would also redefine the role of agencies by giving them more powers of arbitrary detentions.

About the addition of more offences to the Army Act, Qayyum said they included abduction, use of arms, terrorism and others. He said the amended law would definitely apply to any such offence committed by tribal militants and other people.

The director general of the Inter Services Public Relations, however, denied having knowledge on the issue. The amendment to the existing law is the second attempt being made to include civilians in the Army Act after 1977.

[snip]

The proposed amendments to the Army Act would also further empower the intelligence agencies by allowing them make arbitrary detentions of civilians without framing any charges and to keep them in custody for an indefinite period. Article

Whatever euphemisms may evolve, martial law by any other name (emphasis added).

…Almost the entire North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas have revolted against the state of Pakistan in favor of the Taliban. And polls conducted by US institutions suggest the hunt for al-Qaeda is extremely unpopular in Pakistan, which also faces wave after wave of suicide attacks in its bigger cities.

[snip]

A local television station has shown footage of people collecting money for what they call the “mujahideen”. The station reported that at one place in the Swat Valley, people collected Rs1.5 million (about US$24,500) in just three hours. Such popular support for the militancy forces Islamabad to question whether it should continue this losing battle, or launch a full-scale war against terror.

However - and this is crucial - should Musharraf decide on the latter approach, he would need to do so under special powers, such as martial law or a state of emergency.

Asia Times Online contacts confirm that in the past three days Musharraf has held several high-level meetings that included all four provincial chief ministers. The discussions centered on the issue of extraordinary powers. The same issue was raised with the policy planning section of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League.

[snip]

A senior security official speaking to Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity, said, “Major surgeries are essential in cases like Lal Masjid [a militant mosque in Islamabad], but such extraordinary events need extraordinary powers. If the courts intervene in such matters, the security forces will stop working and nobody will be able to stop the march of the Taliban into the bigger cities of Pakistan.”

The official continued, “This is a major crossroads in the ‘war on terror’ at which Washington will have to approve an all-powerful government, even at the cost of democracy. Otherwise it can say goodbye to Pakistan as a ‘war on terror’ ally as it [Pakistan] would simply not be able to get results.” Article

Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1:

Pakistan’s Supreme Court is unlikely to rule on the legality of President Pervez Musharraf’s re-election before mid-November, the presiding judge says.

Justice Javed Iqbal also said the court would not be intimidated by threats to impose an emergency or martial law.

[snip]

“If this case does not conclude by tomorrow it will not be heard next week due to engagements of one of the judges and will be then heard on 12 November.”

That would make the timing tight as President Musharraf’s term expires on 15 November, and he is due to announce the date of general elections due by mid-January.

The main lawyer for the petitioners accused the government of using delaying tactics.

Justice Iqbal also said the Supreme Court would not be taken “hostage”.

“No threat will have any effect on this bench, whether it is martial law or [a state of] emergency,” he said. “Whatever will happen, it will be according to the constitution and rules.” Article

#2:

“You (US) twisted our (Pakistan) hand” to allow former Pakistani Prime Minister Bhutto into the country, and “America has this notion they are the best judge. They might as well hold the election in Washington.”

It is a practice in most countries what the leader is unable to say are being told through a junior official, and this is exactly what Deputy Information Minister Tariq Azim Khan told USA Today in a forthright expression of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s sentiments that were undoubtedly taken seriously by the U.S. State Department and the Bush administration.

USA Today in a major reporting piece carried in its Wednesday edition opens its report saying “the United States pressured Pakistan to allow former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to return from exile, promoting her as a moderate influence in a country facing a growing threat from Islamic extremists, a Pakistani government spokesman said.”

“She says what America wants to hear,” Deputy Information Minister Khan said in a weekend interview with USA Today. He said the U.S. government forced a reluctant Pakistan to allow her to return after eight years of self-imposed exile:” You twisted our arm.” Article

Further fallout from this past spring’s Chaudhry crisis.

Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday sentenced former top officers of the capital police to short prison terms for manhandling the country’s Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry in March when he was suspended for allegations of misuse of authority. The five police officers, who included former Islamabad police chief and his deputy, were convicted of mistreating Chaudhry when he tried to walk to the Supreme Court building on March 13.

Television footage on the day showed police pushing the top judge and later nudging him into an official limousine, which he had refused to ride.

The officers’ counsel made a verbal request to the three-member bench to review its verdict, on which the apex court suspended the sentences and directed the guilty men to file formal pleas.

The jail terms vary between 15 days and one month for each officer, but the counsel’s plea for review put the implementation of the verdict on hold. Article

Some more:

A three-member bench headed by Judge Rana Baghwandas handed down the sentences to former Islamabad police chief Chaudhry Iftikhar and Senior Superintendent of Police Zafar Iqbal, who have already been transferred from their positions over the incident. Deputy Superintendent of Police Jameel Hashmi, Inspector Rukhsar Mehdi and guard Siraj were handed down jail sentences of one month each.

The court had earlier sentenced Islamabad Commissioner Khalid Pervez and Deputy Commissioner Muhammad Ali, but their sentences were suspended following appeals by the two officials seeking pardon.

Those sentenced yesterday have 15 days to appeal the verdict.

Another bench of the Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry ordered top government officials to file a comprehensive report on the Oct. 18 bombing that targeted former Premier Benazir Bhutto in Karachi, killing 139 people. The court expressed impatience with the investigation that has yet to identify the culprits or their motive.

Chaudhry, leading the four-member panel of judges, ordered the senior officials to file a “comprehensive report” on the bombing within a week, at which time the next hearing will be set. Article

Afghanistan summaries here and here and here.

Pakistan summaries here and here. Also this.

Afghanistan summary here and here and here.

Pakistan summary here.

Chaos entrenched.

…Nine months after the Taliban’s takeover of Musa Qala’s district center, serious splits have formed between the foreign fighters and the majority of tribal Taliban operating throughout the district. The largest Pashtun tribe in Helmand, the Alizai (23.5%), are in secret talks with the government regarding a possible defection from the Taliban insurgency. The tribe’s leader, Mullah Abdul Salaam, is a powerful Soviet-jihad mujahidin commander and former Taliban Corps commander.

he political outcome is so serious and potentially devastating to the Taliban movement that senior Taliban officials outside of Helmand dispatched assassins to kill Mullah Addul Salaam this week but failed. Other provincial officials have confirmed that ‘secret’ peace talks have transpired and support any such developments. Unlike Helmand’s other marginalized Taliban aligned tribes, like the Noorzai and the Itzakzai, the Alizai have been included in legitimate government positions and the illicit drug trade.

But Mullah Abdul Salaam is not the only Alizai battling to fill the power vacuum in Helmand.

Sher Muhammad Akhundzada, an Alizai and the former governor of Helmand province discharged for his close ties to the drug trade, has restored himself politically and is now actively vying for the governorship once again. After President Karzai fired Sher Muhammad at the insistence of the UK contingent in Helmand, he was appointed to Parliament where he helped create a 500 man tribal militia to help combat Taliban activities in remote areas of Helmand province. This controversial lashkar essentially served to consolidate Sher Muhammad’s power base and enhanced his powerful social position.

[snip]

…Sher Muhammad is a Helmand native and still commands a strong following amongst its residents, but he is strongly despised by the UK and US forces stationed in the province. Coalition misgivings or not, a massive defection by the Alizai tribe may be all that is needed for Sher Muhammad to regain his governorship of Helmand province. Article

Add in as well that the record of U.S. involvement, understanding and interaction with the meniscus of tribal structures and allegiances in the fluid context of political and martial relational realities is far, far from unsullied and also that that legacy remains current.

To which the response will be something along the line of the old carnival barker rsponse, to wit, “Go away, kid, ya bother me.”

At a joint meeting on Monday, the Afghan authorities reiterated their reservations about the introduction of biometric system at the Pak-Afghan border post near Chaman.

Reliable sources said the Islamabad decision to make the biometric system functional from November 1 was discussed at length during a trilateral meeting attended by Pakistani, Afghan and Nato officials.

The sources said the Afghan officials characterised the system as an obstruction in the way of free movement of Afghans living on both sides of the border. The Nato officials, however, did not object to the Pakistani government’s plan. Article

Keeping up with the charges:

A Marine Corps legal tribunal called to investigate the killing of up to 19 Afghan civilians earlier this year has been delayed until early December, a spokesman said Tuesday.

The court of inquiry, a rare legal mechanism last used by the Marine Corps in 1956, will examine the roles of two Marines present during the shootings. It was scheduled to begin Thursday at Camp Lejeune but was tentatively pushed back because of scheduling conflicts, said Lt. Col. Sean Gibson, a Marines spokesman at Central Command.

Mark Waple, an attorney representing one of the Marines, said the defense asked for the delay so lawyers “could get through the several thousand pages of information we have to digest.”

[snip]

Lt. Gen. James Mattis, the top Marine officer at Central Command, ordered the court to examine the roles of Maj. Fred Galvin, who was a company commander with the 2nd Marine Special Operations Battalion, and Capt. Vincent Noble, the platoon commander. Neither man has been charged.

Mattis will review the court’s findings to determine if criminal charges are warranted.

Waple, Galvin’s civilian lawyer, said his client never told anyone to fire and didn’t fire shots himself. Waple said Galvin wouldn’t make public statements because “he’s a quiet, professional Marine and very much wants to keep it that way.”

Noble’s attorney didn’t immediately return a telephone call Tuesday.

None of the company’s Marines has been charged, but eight members of the company were ordered back to Camp Lejeune after the incident. The remainder of the unit was ordered to leave Afghanistan and return to ships in the Persian Gulf.

Gibson said he couldn’t provide details on why Galvin and Nobel were singled out, adding that it was unlikely other Marines would be formally examined.

The court of inquiry, which was last used to investigate the deaths of recruits at Parris Island, will be comprised of senior officers who will hear testimony before making a recommendation to Mattis. The officers’ names haven’t been released. Article

Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1:

Pakistan’s top judge on Tuesday ordered the government to allow Nawaz Sharif to return home, saying its deportation of the former Prime Minister in September violated an earlier court ruling.

Hundreds of Mr Sharif’s supporters clapped and shouted slogans against military ruler President Pervez Musharraf outside the Supreme Court after the move by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

The judge also accused current Premier Shaukat Aziz of disobeying the Supreme Court’s orders when Mr Sharif was put onto a plane to Saudi Arabia on September 10, hours after ending his seven-year exile.

Justice Chaudhry, a thorn in the government’s side since Gen. Musharraf tried to sack him earlier in 2007, had ruled on August 23 that Mr Sharif had an “inalienable right” to come home and told authorities not to hinder him. “The judgment passed by this court is very much intact… and is required to be implemented in letter and spirit,” Justice Chaudhry told the court as he adjourned a hearing on appeals against the deportation until November 8.

“There was a clear-cut violation of our judgment.” Article

#2:

An 11-member bench of the Supreme Court said on Tuesday that it would decide a number of petitions challenging President General Pervez Musharraf’s eligibility to run for president on Friday. Article

#3:

Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf is being advised to declare emergency in the country before a possible Supreme Court decision against his eligibility, official sources said.

“Though the President is not inclined on declaring emergency, his advisers are preparing a draft decree in this regard (to declare emergency).

This will be an option with the President if the Supreme Court decides against him,” a senior government official told this newspaper.

[snip]

The official said, “Some of Gen. Musharraf’s advisers think the time is ripe to declare emergency in the country.” Article

Chaos on hold — for now.

A tense calm prevailed in Swat district on Tuesday following a temporary ceasefire between militants and government forces on Monday as a 25-member local jirga won support from the militants and the security forces for a permanent ceasefire, officials and elders said.

“We have separately met military officials and a Taliban commander to win their support for a permanent ceasefire in the Kabal area,” Israr Ahmed, a key jirga member, said after the meetings. He said the jirga had meetings with Colonels Sarfraz and Jawad and Taliban commander Akbar Hussain to discuss the possibility of a ceasefire in Kabal and surroundings.

“Both sides extended their full cooperation and from tomorrow (Wednesday) onwards Kabal bazaar will be reopened,” Awami National Party leader and jirga member Fazle Maullah told reporters. Under the proposed permanent ceasefire deal, the jirga said, the army would restrict itself to Kabal Golf Ground whereas the militants would remove their bunkers and leave the bazaar. Article

Partial day off, so very light posting today.

IRAQ IIO

Summaries here and here and here. Also this.

TURKISH TIGHTROPE

Summary here.

AFGHANISTAN

Summary here and here.

PAKISTAN

Summary here and here.

RAIDERS ON THE HORN

Summary here.

Unless (as rumored below) he is fleeing the country, under a parliamentary system ex-prime minister Gedi is still a sitting member.

Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi resigned Monday following a long-running feud with the president, as the chaotic country sank deeper into a political, security and humanitarian crisis.

[snip]

He handed his resignation letter to President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, who immediately appointed Gedi’s deputy, Salim Aliyow Ibrow, as interim prime minister.

[snip]

Gedi, 55, took the helm of the transitional federal government in November 2004 but has often been at loggerheads with Yusuf. The men come from Somalia’s two main rival clans.

[snip]

Yusuf had been pushing parliament to oust the premier for failing to end the Islamist-led insurgency, draft a new constitution and bolster federal government.

Critics also blame Gedi for being behind the decision to invite Ethiopian forces into Somalia to help rescue the struggling government in its battle against Islamist militants. Article

Also:

The former prime minister of the transitional federal government of Somalia, Prof. Ali Mohamed Gedi, who resigned today in the face of mounting pressure, departed to Nairobi, Kenya, by special jet.

The purpose of Gedi’s trip to Kenya is yet to be known, but unconfirmed reports suggest that Gedi and members of his government have received asylum in the United States. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here.

Contours of chaos: awash in arms.

Many former militia commanders and residents in northern Afghanistan have been hoarding weapons in violation of the country’s disarmament laws, giving the excuse that they face a spreading Taliban insurgency from the south that government forces alone are too frail to stop, Afghan and Western officials say.

After years of moderate success for government disarmament programs, rumors of widespread defiance in the north have arisen recently among government officials and intelligence agencies in Kabul and elsewhere. Although there is little hard evidence that commanders are greatly enlarging their arsenals, officials say, some have been thwarting government programs, refusing to disarm and possibly even remobilizing militias.

The talk of rearming underscores a deepening north-south ethnic divide that some diplomats and Afghan officials privately worry could lead the way toward a shift of power back to warlords - and toward a countrywide armed conflict - if left unchecked. And the situation poses a major challenge for President Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun from the south, whose administration has failed to win the confidence of many non-Pashtun leaders and northerners.

Prices on the weapons black market in the north have skyrocketed as residents, governed by suspicion and foreboding, have kept their firearms, driving down the supply.

[snip]

The Taliban insurgency is strongest in southern and eastern Afghanistan. And while it has been able to bedevil Afghan and international troops in some other regions of the country, before this year its reach rarely stretched into the northern provinces.

But government officials report an increase in Taliban activity in the north this year, particularly in the northwest. The number of Taliban attacks on Afghan and international security forces in Balkh and the other relatively peaceful provinces of north-central Afghanistan has risen from last year, the authorities say.

Afghan and Western officials also say in addition to an increase in Taliban activity, there has been an escalation in crime and, in some areas, tensions among rival northern political factions. These officials say it is often difficult to determine who is to blame for specific violent acts.

Afghan government officials say that in certain northern districts, militia commanders have evaded government weapons inspectors by breaking down their stockpiles of illegal firearms and redistributing them throughout their communities, making them harder to find. Afghan and Western officials say weapons are hidden everywhere: in grain silos and closets, in mountain caves and in holes in the ground. Article

Short follow-up to a story originally out of Pakistan mentioned here earlier:

Afghanistan on Sunday denied allegations it was involved in the unrest in Waziristan and Swat, saying that it would not let Afghan soil be used for anti-Pakistan activities. “We will not allow anyone to use our soil against Pakistan,” President Hamid Karzai’s spokesman Humayun Hamidzada told Daily Times, a day after the NWFP caretaker chief minister hinted at the possible involvement of India or Afghanistan in terrorist activities in the Swat region. “Using terrorism as a foreign policy tool will serve nobody’s interests; such a practice is bound to backfire,” Hamidzada said.… Article

Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1:

In the face of escalating militant violence, the former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto has returned to her ancestral homeland under extraordinarily tight security.

It was her first big move since an assassination attempt against her killed 139 people, and in a quick and tightly scripted visit, Bhutto paid respects at the tomb of her father, the former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and waved to thousands who had gathered to mark her homecoming on Saturday after eight years of exile. But she did not speak to the assembled mass of flag-waving supporters, and concerns about another attack seemed to dictate every aspect of the trip.

[snip]

Her convoy on Saturday, which included vehicles mounted with machine-guns, sped along the route from the airport in the southern city of Sukkur to the tomb in the village of Garhi Khuda Baksh. Only bodyguards and members of the media were allowed near.

The bullet-proof four-wheel-drive was equipped with a hatch in the roof, flanked by two metal slabs. At several points she emerged to show her face to locals who worship the Bhutto name with an almost religious fervour.

[snip]

The security concerns pose a considerable challenge for Bhutto and for Pakistan as parliamentary elections that are due by January draw near. Bhutto, whose Pakistan People’s Party has long relied on mass rallies to drum up support, has said her party is talking with political consultants about other, less dangerous campaign tactics, including tape-recorded messages.

On Saturday Bhutto’s personal bodyguards - many armed with automatic weapons - appeared to be in charge of her protection, with government forces present in modest numbers. Article

More:

…Wearing a black coat and her trademark white headscarf, Bhutto went to the home of Nizmuddin Sammo, a 22-year-old supporter who was killed in the blast, and met with his mother and two sisters, promising them financial assistance from her Pakistan Peoples Party. She praised Sammo as a young man who “lost his life in the moment to save democracy … He did not bow his head before dictatorship and terrorism. His sacrifice will not be in vain.” Article

#2:

Ms Bhutto, who has been in talks about a power-sharing deal with President Musharraf, could still face several cases outside of Pakistan.

One of the most advanced is in Switzerland, where in 2003 Geneva magistrate Daniel Devaud convicted Ms Bhutto of money-laundering.

In his judgment, he found she and her close associates received around $15m in kickbacks from Pakistani government contracts with SGS and Cotecna, two Swiss companies.

Mr Devaud sentenced Ms Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari to 180 days in prison, ordering them to return $11.9m to the government of Pakistan.

“I certainly don’t have any doubts about the judgments I handed down [which] came after an investigation lasting several years, involving thousands of documents,” he has told the BBC.

Ms Bhutto contested the decision, which was made in her absence, and the case is being reheard, with the former prime minister now facing the more serious charge of aggravated money-laundering.

[snip]

Many in Pakistan assume the Swiss case will now collapse because of the deal struck between Ms Bhutto and President Musharraf.

Yet under Swiss law, even if the government of Pakistan stops co-operating, that would not automatically end legal proceedings in Switzerland.

Vincent Fournier, the Swiss judge in charge of the current case, told the BBC he planned to hand the case over to Geneva’s attorney-general this week.

A second international case involving Ms Bhutto is under way in England.

[snip]

The London case is a civil one. That means it could collapse should President Musharraf’s government decide not to pursue it.

Ms Bhutto also faces allegations concerning the United Nations oil-for-food scandal. Article

#3:

Former journalist and secretary general of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) Mushahid Hussain and two retired Supreme Court judges have become the latest addition to a growing list of nominees for the largely ceremonial post of caretaker prime minister who will conduct the next general elections. Article

Afghanistan summary here and here.

Pakistan summary here.

Classic foot in mouth disease.

NWFP Caretaker Chief Minister Shamsul Mulk said on Saturday India or Afghanistan could be supporting the militants who are creating unrest in Swat.… Article

Putting a toe into the lake of reneging?

President Pervez Musharraf would decide on doffing his uniform after the Supreme Court verdict, said a Pakistani official Saturday.

Federal Railway Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmad hoped that the top court bench would give its decision about the presidential election next week which would improve the political situation in the country. Article

Monitoring the ‘election’ pressure cooker.

#1:

Pakistan People’s Party Chairwoman Benazir Bhutto will be provided with foolproof security on her visit to Punjab, said Punjab Police Inspector General Ahmed Nasim on Saturday. Article

#2 — analysis du jour.

Pakistan is terribly divided by ethnicity, class and sectarian loyalties.

There is insurgency in the province of Baluchistan, Taliban-al Qaida warriors with local allies in the border lands of Afghanistan, political disquiet in the heartland of Punjab, and recurring sectarian strife in Karachi, the country’s largest city in the southern province of Sind.

The strategic public support needed by Pakistan’s ruling elite to eliminate the jihadis will not be forthcoming if Musharraf makes selective deals with some politicians in his bid to fix the outcome of the forthcoming election ahead of the vote.

This is what Musharraf has done by removing the bars against Bhutto to come back from exile abroad, while denying the same to Nawaz Sharif in defiance of the Supreme Court justices ruling in favour of the former deposed prime minister’s fundamental right to return home.

An election in which Sharif, a native of Punjab, is denied participation will be seen by most Pakistanis as rigged.

And Bhutto will discredit herself as a willing stooge of Musharraf if she contests the election from which Sharif is absent.

The stakes for Pakistan, the region and the world beyond are unforgivably high in the twin outcome of an election accepted as legitimate, and the battle against the local jihadis with their foreign cohorts. Article